Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Unlimited Budget is a horse that we have competitive on figures.

I just don't like her in this spot. She was a good 2yo Sales horse last year. Not a real fast work, but 21.60 and she had the best gallop out of any filly at that sale and she cost a ton of money for a Street Sense/Valid Appeal.

On top of being one who trained at the sales, she has done A Lot of developing from age 2 to 3. Compare her Demoiselle form to her 3yo form and compare Overanalyze's Remsen to his 3yo form.

Unlimited Budget has already developed like a healthy thriving colt is supposed to, where as Overanalyze hasn't developed any...which is weird for a colt who has stayed healthy and hasn't missed any training.

I flirted with the idea of taking a shot and picking/stabbing with Overanalyze to win this race as a "grow-up play" and with the idea that he is one of those Pletcher horses like Stay Thirsty who doesn't run a step at Churchill.

Overanalyze ran brutal at Churchill at age 2, and in his next start, bounced back to win the best 2yo race of the year in the Remsen. He didn't get any puffed up Florida form this winter for Pletcher, he actually won at Oaklawn, which had been a house of horrors for Pletcher prior to him winning there.

I don't usually make a big deal about jockeys, but I don't like that John Velazquez is on him. There are two guys in the room (Jose Lezcano and Junior Alvarado) who fit the horse very well, and they are guys I like on that type of horse in a race where I expect the pace to be fast and contested. IMO, You would have gained a little something on the track over Johnny V. with both guys, and from a betting standpoint, you would have gained higher odds with either one of those guys as well. But Velazquez gets the business in that barn and he's generally a good rider, just not a guy I like in the situation I envision on a horse like Overanalyze.

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

[largo1]

Hey Calzone Lord,
Can I get your pre-race analysis on both Golden Soul and Freedom Child? I always enjoy your commentary and as a relative newbie, would appreciate your input.
Good racing luck to all!

[Calzone Lord]

Both Freedom Child and Golden Soul will be off my tickets.

I respect Freedom Child, but I expect him to be a pace casualty. Frac Daddy is sending inside of him and the very good Oxbow will obviously be forward. The survivor of that wave of speed probably gets to take the best shot Vyjack and Palace Malice has on the turn. It's a very tough scenario for both FC and Oxbow. The commitment to send Frac Daddy may seem irrelevant, but it's not. Whenever the pace has been 47 and change or faster, it's usually collapsed Belmont's past. If Frac Daddy really is sent from the inside, there's no chance this pace isn't at least 47.

Golden Soul will get another great pace setup, but I don't like post #14, I don't like that he had a workout postponed because he wasn't eating well, and I'm generally not a fan of Dallas Stewart horses when he runs them in New York.

[zippyneedsawin]

I suspect Repoles longshot Midnight Taboo may be there to contribute to the pace as well.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

Yep, I hear ya. Appreciate the response CL.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

Good Call http : )

[hondo]

Doug ......great job analyzing this race, your pace analysis was spot on. You made me go back and look at Palace Malace and i had liked him from a breeding standpoint and I included him in both the multis and trifectas along with Oxbow who I thought was the best of the forwardly placed horses, Orb and Revolutionary. Thanks again

[Calzone Lord]

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

And yet both Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss were at a loss to explain what happened to Orb in the Preakness.

Bob Neumeier and Mike Battaglia said when they made their selections yesterday said that they couldn't understand why Orb ran so poorly in Baltimore.

Palace Malice found all kinds of trouble in the LA Derby, was too close to a race that collapsed in the Blue Grass, and of course set the insane pace in the Derby. He had a big right to improve. Yet none of the national media picked up on this at all.

You and Andy were out there early with this great analysis and deserve lots of credit.

Paul

[blackthroatedwind]

Yesterday's 12th and 13th at Belmont were great examples of horses that were coming out of negative dynamics situations. Sky Blue Pink had been in one of the more curious slow pace turf races of the meet at Belmont, his first off a layoff, where as a closer he ended up making an outrageous wide middle move. He came back to finish second at a big price. The third finisher, Why Not Whiskey, was very surprisingly on the pace in his last, as he's a deep closer, when he was also coming off a layoff. This is a classic prep race for a layoff horse. It ended up being a tough beat with these horses finishing 2nd and 3rd, but over time you make plenty of money with these horses.

In the 13th, Foolish Tiger had gotten an oddly aggressive ride in his last, making early and middle moves in a race that collapsed. His prior efforts made him one of the reasonable contenders if the favorite didn't run to his out of town form ( which he didn't ). He won at 12:1.

There are plenty of these, of course, that don't work out, but they will outperform their odds over time.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yesterday's 12th and 13th at Belmont were great examples of horses that were coming out of negative dynamics situations. Sky Blue Pink had been in one of the more curious slow pace turf races of the meet at Belmont, his first off a layoff, where as a closer he ended up making an outrageous wide middle move. He came back to finish second at a big price. The third finisher, Why Not Whiskey, was very surprisingly on the pace in his last, as he's a deep closer, when he was also coming off a layoff. This is a classic prep race for a layoff horse. It ended up being a tough beat with these horses finishing 2nd and 3rd, but over time you make plenty of money with these horses.

In the 13th, Foolish Tiger had gotten an oddly aggressive ride in his last, making early and middle moves in a race that collapsed. His prior efforts made him one of the reasonable contenders if the favorite didn't run to his out of town form ( which he didn't ). He won at 12:1.

There are plenty of these, of course, that don't work out, but they will outperform their odds over time.

It could have potentially saved me a lot of heartbreak had I read this earlier about Foolish Tiger...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

Come clean with the truth -- you only liked him because I said I liked him a week ago on facebook.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Good Call http : )

I've got a gift. I ended up landing on Incognito...obviously to no avail. CL has been on point, no doubt.

On a side note, how many of the 14 horses in the race yesterday actually put in any kind of run at any point, like 4?