Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[Calzone Lord]

Nothing particularly strong on the Belmont from me. I'm pretty confident how the race will be run, I expect the pace to be quick and contested and the race will play to the benefit of closers.

I think the four main contenders to win are Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze...but I'm awfully wishy-washy in terms of which I want most.

In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.

Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5

Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5

It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.

[nfliehman]

In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.

Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5

Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5

It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.[/quote]

What are your thoughts on Incognito?

[jms62]

What are your thoughts on Incognito?

I think he'll finish the race.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

9/5/14/2

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

9/5/14/2

[10 pnt move up]

Pace seemed crazy fast to me.

[outofthebox]

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

[nfliehman]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think he'll finish the race.

How original

[jms62]

Originally Posted by nfliehman

How original

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

[nfliehman]

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

I do not have close to the horse racing knowledge most on this board have. With that being said, I read somewhere last night that his pedigree is well suited for this distance. I didn't know if he was deemed a closer or not. With people saying closers could have the best chance to win and his pedigree I thought he could have a chance to at least hit the board. Thanks for the info though

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

didn't Attigun have zip in terms of experience but still run lights out also?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

Didn't Sarava win a stakes race on the Preakness undercard 3 weeks earlier?

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Nothing particularly strong on the Belmont from me. I'm pretty confident how the race will be run, I expect the pace to be quick and contested and the race will play to the benefit of closers.

I think the four main contenders to win are Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze...but I'm awfully wishy-washy in terms of which I want most.

In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.

Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5

Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5

It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.

Doug, you got me to include Palice Malice. Thank you. I'll make it to PID this summer and but you dinner and drinks.