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  #21  
Old 07-19-2012, 10:18 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asudevil View Post
That number is skewed given the purchases by Kaleem Shah.
I don't understand how that would make things skewed. The whole point is that Baffert gets really expensive horses from guys like Shah. Obviously it would be better to go further back and increase the sample size, but it'll take too long.
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  #22  
Old 07-19-2012, 10:29 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 View Post
I don't understand how that would make things skewed. The whole point is that Baffert gets really expensive horses from guys like Shah. Obviously it would be better to go further back and increase the sample size, but it'll take too long.
It only makes it skewed if there is one, maybe two, huge priced yearlings and the rest are very modest.

I doubt that's the case.
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  #23  
Old 07-19-2012, 10:56 AM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Brigand was a $90,000 yearling and $925,000 2yo.

Macho Rocket was a $22,000 yearling and a $825,000 2yo.

Both of these fine pinhooks slightly out of Klaravich's price range won their debut for Baffert.

Quote:
Baffert debut winners avg. purchase price: $360,000 (from 12 winners)
Removing Brigand and Macho Rocket makes Baffert's avg winning purchase price at 185K from 10 debut winners.

I wouldn't say skewed, but it's just not a big sample.
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  #24  
Old 07-19-2012, 11:24 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
It only makes it skewed if there is one, maybe two, huge priced yearlings and the rest are very modest.

I doubt that's the case.
Right.
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  #25  
Old 07-19-2012, 02:18 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Here is something that is pretty interesting.

These are the top 40 rated quarterback prospects coming out of highschool in the year 2008:

Andrew Luck was only rated #7 at his position that year. RG 3 was rated only the 40th best qb prospect coming out of highschool his year.




Quote:
1


Terrelle Pryor
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Jeannette, PA
Jeannette High School

6'6''

227



93



Ohio State
Signed




2


Dayne Crist
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Canoga Park, CA
Notre Dame High School

6'5''

228



84



Notre Dame
Signed




3


Mike Glennon
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Centreville, VA
Westfield High School

6'6''

194



83



N Carolina St
Signed




4


Kyle Parker
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Jacksonville, FL
Bartram Trail High School

6'0''

188



83



Clemson
Signed




5


Blaine Gabbert
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Ballwin, MO
Parkway West High School

6'4''

226



83



Missouri
Signed




6


E.J. Manuel
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Virginia Beach, VA
Bayside High School

6'5''

210



82



Florida St
Signed




7


Andrew Luck
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Houston, TX
Stratford High School

6'3''

205



82



Stanford
Signed




8


Tyler Wilson
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Greenwood, AR
Greenwood High School

6'3''

182



82



Arkansas
Signed




9


Taylor Cook
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Eagle Lake, TX
Rice High School

6'6''

210



81



Miami (FL)
Signed




10


Nick Crissman
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Huntington Beach, CA
Edison High School

6'3''

193



81



UCLA
Signed




11


Landry Jones
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Artesia, NM
Artesia High School

6'4''

224



81



Oklahoma
Signed




12


Kelly Page
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Sunnyvale, TX
Mesquite High School

6'3''

202



80



Ball State
Signed




13


MarQueis Gray
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Indianapolis, IN
Ben Davis High School

6'4''

204



80



Minnesota
Signed




14


Tino Sunseri
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Pittsburgh, PA
Central Catholic High School

6'2''

190



80



Pittsburgh
Signed




15


John Wienke
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Tuscola, IL
Tuscola High School

6'4''

196



80



Iowa
Signed




16


Jordan Jefferson
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Destrahan, LA
Destrehan High School

6'4''

200



80



LSU
Signed




17


D.C. Jefferson
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Winter Haven, FL
Winter Haven High School

6'6''

230



79



Rutgers
Signed




18


Riley Dodge
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Southlake, TX
Carroll High School

6'0''

185



79



North Texas
Signed




19


Curt Phillips
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Kingsport, TN
Sullivan South High School

6'3''

212



79



Wisconsin
Signed




20


Nick Florence
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Garland, TX
South Garland High School

6'2''

167



79



Baylor
Signed




21


Jacory Harris
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Miami, FL
Miami Northwestern High School

6'4''

169



79



Miami (FL)
Signed




22


Ryan Griffin
Video | Scouts Report


QB

West Hills, CA
Chaminade College Prep School

6'4''

207



79



Tulane
Signed




23


Star Jackson
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Lake Worth, FL
Lake Worth Community High School

6'3''

182



79



Alabama
Signed




24


Corey Trisby
Video | Scouts Report


QB

San Diego, CA
Herbert Hoover High School

6'2''

184



79



UTEP
Signed




25


Matt Scott
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Corona, CA
Centennial High School

6'2''

185



78



Arizona
Signed




26


Tommy Dorman
Video | Scouts Report


QB

North Richland, TX
Birdville High School

6'3''

204



78



Texas A&M
Signed




27


Kody Spano
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Stephenville, TX
Stephenville High School

6'2''

202



78



Nebraska
Signed




28


Tommy Reamon Jr.
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Gloucester, VA
Gloucester High School

6'2''

190



78


List



29


Domonick Britt
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Trotwood, OH
Trotwood-Madison High School

6'4''

175



78


List



30


DeRon Furr
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Columbus, GA
Carver High School

6'3''

212



78



Auburn
Signed




31


Casey Kelly
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Sarasota, FL
Sarasota High School

6'2''

191



78



Tennessee
Signed




32


Beau Sweeney
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Clovis, CA
Clovis West High School

6'1''

197



77



California
Signed




33


Luther Leonard
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Burien, WA
Evergreen High School

6'2''

190



77



Washington
Signed




34


Dominique Blackman
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Carson, CA
Carson High School

6'5''

242



77



Washington
Signed




35


Mark Tolzien
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Rolling Meadows, IL
William Fremd High School

6'0''

162



77


List



36


Adam Barry
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Moorpark, CA
Moorpark High School

6'1''

196



77



Wyoming
Signed




37


Jacob Charest
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Matthews, NC
David W Butler

6'4''

192



77



Illinois
Signed




38


Justin Tuggle
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Duluth, GA
Northview High School

6'3''

205



77



Boston College
Signed




39


Deaunte Mason
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Nashville, TN
Pearl-Cohn High School

6'4''

210



77



Kentucky
Signed




40


Robert Griffin
Video | Scouts Report


QB

Copperas Cove, TX
Copperas Cove High School

6'3''

195



77



Baylor
Signed
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  #26  
Old 07-22-2012, 05:11 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Sadly, with Rose Junction's dead last finish in the Sanford -- Pletcher is off to a 1-for-19 start after 3 days.

We are all rooting hard for Mr. Pletcher as he is such a brilliant horseman and we know he will overcome this slow start and win this years Saratoga training title like the idol he is.
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  #27  
Old 07-22-2012, 05:16 PM
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VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
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His one winner was a freak though.
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  #28  
Old 07-22-2012, 05:25 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK View Post
His one winner was a freak though.
She was a freak long before he got her.

She had the outright bullet at the nations premier 2yo sale (FT Florida) and also had no red flags in all the areas and information where you check for the red flags.

1/5th of a second at that distance and rate of speed -- is a gigantic margin.

He's going to do well with 2-year-olds because of the edge in firepower he has. I'm going to play against him with anything that ran at Gulfstream for him.
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  #29  
Old 07-22-2012, 07:01 PM
outofthebox outofthebox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Sadly, with Rose Junction's dead last finish in the Sanford -- Pletcher is off to a 1-for-19 start after 3 days.

We are all rooting hard for Mr. Pletcher as he is such a brilliant horseman and we know he will overcome this slow start and win this years Saratoga training title like the idol he is.
Rose Junction had no business on the track today! She warmed up worse than some of the 3500 claimers i see at EVD. Hopefully she will be ok.
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  #30  
Old 07-23-2012, 04:32 PM
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Pletcher is lighting it up at the Spa with a 1 for 22 start on opening weekend.
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  #31  
Old 07-23-2012, 04:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pointman View Post
Pletcher is lighting it up at the Spa with a 1 for 22 start on opening weekend.
Just because of sheer volume -- he will still win the training title.

He's basically just another glaring example of image and fashion being everything in horse racing.
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  #32  
Old 07-24-2012, 06:31 PM
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pmacdaddy pmacdaddy is offline
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So what to do with Lucky Friend in the 5th tomorrow (Wed)? JV's return mount.

Pk4 single or play against? Still have work to do, but personally leaning to the former with small covers on a couple others.

Last edited by pmacdaddy : 07-24-2012 at 07:35 PM.
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  #33  
Old 07-24-2012, 07:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmacdaddy View Post
So what to do with Lucky Friend in the 5th tomorrow (Wed)? JV's return mount.

Pk4 single or play against?
I don't understand why Gadget Girl was such a healthy pin-hook. She was a 55K yearling turned 300K 2yo buy.

I love More Than Ready debuters, but from what I saw, she isn't especially fast.

She was lightly urged (which means nothing) in her sale work -- but 10 4/5 isn't anything special...even over a track people were claiming was "deep and slow"

These horses get a full run-up and are only asked for one good furlong. It's not like they're breaking from a starting gate with just 40 ft of run-up going a true distance.

I'm only going 2-deep this race. I'm using the Pletcher 2yo for sure. And I'm using whoever appears more live on the board between My Happy Face and Teen Pauline.
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  #34  
Old 07-24-2012, 07:40 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I don't understand why Gadget Girl was such a healthy pin-hook. She was a 55K yearling turned 300K 2yo buy.

I love More Than Ready debuters, but from what I saw, she isn't especially fast.

She was lightly urged (which means nothing) in her sale work -- but 10 4/5 isn't anything special...even over a track people were claiming was "deep and slow"

These horses get a full run-up and are only asked for one good furlong. It's not like they're breaking from a starting gate with just 40 ft of run-up going a true distance.

I'm only going 2-deep this race. I'm using the Pletcher 2yo for sure. And I'm using whoever appears more live on the boardbetween My Happy Face and Teen Pauline.
there's a joke there somewhere.
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  #35  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:02 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I don't understand why Gadget Girl was such a healthy pin-hook. She was a 55K yearling turned 300K 2yo buy.

I love More Than Ready debuters, but from what I saw, she isn't especially fast.

She was lightly urged (which means nothing) in her sale work -- but 10 4/5 isn't anything special...even over a track people were claiming was "deep and slow"

These horses get a full run-up and are only asked for one good furlong. It's not like they're breaking from a starting gate with just 40 ft of run-up going a true distance.

I'm only going 2-deep this race. I'm using the Pletcher 2yo for sure. And I'm using whoever appears more live on the board between My Happy Face and Teen Pauline.
Like this horse a bit
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  #36  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 View Post
Like this horse a bit
Do you know anything or just have a feeling?

I was Tiz Wonderful's biggest fan.
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  #37  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:22 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Do you know anything or just have a feeling?

I was Tiz Wonderful's biggest fan.
Haven't heard anything about her. . . here's my rationale: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...spa-day-5.html

I was a big Tiz Wonderful fan too.
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  #38  
Old 07-25-2012, 12:28 AM
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Me three. I thought Tiz Wonderful was the most talented runner in that crop.

He reminded me a lot of his grandsire.
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  #39  
Old 07-25-2012, 05:18 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
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Hate to burst everyones bubble, but they are not beating the 9 in the baby race today. My only bet of the day....$50 to win.
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  #40  
Old 07-25-2012, 09:34 AM
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Hate to burst everyones bubble, but they are not beating the 9 in the baby race today. My only bet of the day....$50 to win.
Yes, they are.
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