Battaglia's tentative pre-draw Derby ML

Jon White had Hansen at 12-1. I can't see him being higher than 8-1.

[alysheba4]

creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.

[Travis Stone]

I can't say I would disagree with much. It's a hard line to make, especially this year.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.

Why becuase it would be a massive underlay and create value elsewhere?

[HaloWishingwell]

Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1

He should be, but I agree that he won't (because of Borel).

[ranger5830]

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

[FATPIANO]

I'll take 6-1 on Gemologist

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

I think this is a year where we return to realistic odds on the longshots... but then again, who knows... the volume in the pool is so large.

Making a horse 30-1 instead of 50-1 starts to really increase odds on some of the lower horses, which is tough to do this year.