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Battaglia's tentative pre-draw Derby ML
Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line
Hansen (Maker/Dominguez)*10-1* Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue)*30-1* Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux)*9-2* Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1* Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario)*12-1* Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano)*6-1* Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani)*30-1* Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel)*15-1* Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith)*4-1* I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Gutierrez)*12-1* Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez)*15-1* Liaison (Baffert/M. Garcia)*50-1* Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh)*15-1* Prospective (Casse/Contreras)*30-1* Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez)*50-1* Done Talking (Smith/Russell)*50-1* Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez)*20-1* Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano)*50-1* El Padrino (Pletcher/Bejarano)*20-1* Optimizer (Lukas/Court)*50-1* |
Jon White had Hansen at 12-1. I can't see him being higher than 8-1.
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creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.
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I can't say I would disagree with much. It's a hard line to make, especially this year.
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[quote=Kasept;857370]Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line
Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1*QUOTE] so much for value there :rolleyes: -bt- |
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Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1
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I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.
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I'll take 6-1 on Gemologist
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Making a horse 30-1 instead of 50-1 starts to really increase odds on some of the lower horses, which is tough to do this year. |
I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).
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Hard to envision we'll have a Big Brown (2-1) or even a Friesan Fire (3.8-1?!?!?!?!? - sorry, had to throw that in there for laughs) in the 2012 Derby.
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Unless you are only betting in the win pool, the odds are meaningless for assessing legitimate value. I think you get some much more realistic value on the "longshots" in the exotics pool compared to the win pool, where a load of the novice money ends up going.
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I'm starting to really like Hanson.
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I prefer Nelson, but Hanson will do.
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I think you mean Nilsson.
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