DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in..

Danzig · #1 05-01-2012, 09:16 AM

after reading beyer on t'burg, i'm leaning toward dullahan, creative cause and gemologist. i think his points about the early pace and who it will affect is absolutely correct.

slotdirt · #2 05-01-2012, 09:18 AM

I agree with Beyer for the most part. If a horse is going to go out and run a 45 half in the Derby, it's going to effect the race outcome regardless.

Danzig · #3 05-01-2012, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I agree with Beyer for the most part. If a horse is going to go out and run a 45 half in the Derby, it's going to effect the race outcome regardless.

i figured all that about t'berg, but appreciated him mentioning about other horses running styles, and how they will most likely suffer with his entry. looking at off the pace horses, rather than those who like to be on or near the front. several good horses will be compromised because of this horse running, it'll affect more than just trinniberg.

richard · #4 05-01-2012, 03:16 PM

You had Songandaprayer set the Derby record for a 1/2 at 44.86. Of the four horses at the front at the half none finished better than 11th. Congaree in 5th at the half hung in there to finish 3rd. When Hal's Hope ran for glory he was in the lead at the half in 45.99. Of the 4 horses on the lead at the half only More Than Ready finished 4th. The other 3 could do no better than 11th. So I guess you need to keep your best early pace horse in the mix with the closers when there is a hot early pace, as there usually is.

War Emblem won on the lead in his KD in a 1/2 in 47.04.

slotdirt · #5 05-01-2012, 03:40 PM

Folks keep talking about pace - the median opening half since 1970 is around 46 and 2/5. As I mentioned the other day, only twice in that time frame has the half gone slower than 48. Nothing else to add other than the chances of the opening half being anything but quick seem to be relatively slim when the race is looked at from a historical perspective.

slotdirt · #6 05-01-2012, 04:14 PM

So I know I sound like I'm beating a dead horse here - no pun intended - but is Done Talking invisible when he hits the track the last couple of mornings? Aside from Steve's one line of yesterday, I haven't seen anybody - not Mike Welsch in his clocker reports - mention the horse even once. I get that he's an exceptionally long shot to win the race, but with all the mentions of Trinniberg and Liaison and other potential tosses, one would think someone somewhere would have some opinion on the horse when he's been on the grounds for two days now.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #7 05-01-2012, 04:25 PM

he jogged today i think..and im using him.his goham was good and hes gonna get some pace to run at..

Sightseek · #8 05-01-2012, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

So I know I sound like I'm beating a dead horse here - no pun intended - but is Done Talking invisible when he hits the track the last couple of mornings? Aside from Steve's one line of yesterday, I haven't seen anybody - not Mike Welsch in his clocker reports - mention the horse even once. I get that he's an exceptionally long shot to win the race, but with all the mentions of Trinniberg and Liaison and other potential tosses, one would think someone somewhere would have some opinion on the horse when he's been on the grounds for two days now.

The Blood-Horse Facebook page has a bunch of photos of him.

fantini33 · #9 05-02-2012, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

after reading beyer on t'burg, i'm leaning toward dullahan, creative cause and gemologist. i think his points about the early pace and who it will affect is absolutely correct.

Where can I read this? Thx in advance for the help.