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#41
04-30-2012, 04:41 PM
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__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." 
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#42
04-30-2012, 04:46 PM
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#43
04-30-2012, 04:47 PM
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I went into the write up liking the fact that he showed potential to move forward off the FL Derby where he wasn't as bad as people might think. And fig-wise, he's actually been pairing up and is completely in line with all the obvious, lower-priced options. He has a good style for how I think the race flow is going develop as well. The problem, if he indeed has gone the wrong way, is that the Risen Star corker gutted him and Mark Valeski and it will be a while before he's back to where it appeared he was headed. While Jones & Jones may OK a start Wednesday after his jog, Valeski appears to be sideways right now as well..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#44
04-30-2012, 04:50 PM
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The rest of what you say is true enough.
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#45
04-30-2012, 04:51 PM
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Glad this has generated discussion. Take a good look at the Derby charts from the last 7-8 years. Headed to a dinner but anxious to see more of everyone's thoughts later!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#46
04-30-2012, 04:51 PM
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That being said, if the sire was IC, than El Padrino would obviously be a much better racehorse. This would all be a mute point.
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#47
04-30-2012, 04:53 PM
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While a bit better of a performance, perhaps, than his race in Louisianna, it really wasn't much to get excited about.
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#48
04-30-2012, 04:56 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#49
04-30-2012, 04:59 PM
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Secretariat for instance. However, these horses had established form and had run in top races, distinguishing themselves quite well. Can't really say that for El Padrino.
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#50
04-30-2012, 05:25 PM
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El Padrino is getting a look because of his positive figure pattern.
He is supposedly set for a good performance, and his best puts him in contention (minus the big Bode number). Initially I liked him but his last work has me concerned.
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#51
04-30-2012, 05:28 PM
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"I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race."
Steve - What did you mean by this? Are the reports that he is not looking so well??? I had not heard that, so any info is great. Many Thanks
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#53
04-30-2012, 05:46 PM
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Not looking so GOOD!!!!!! Why does everyone in horse racing insist on using "well" instead of "good"????? The HRTV and TVG people do this all the time and it drives me up a god.damn wall. It has to be the fact that you are supposed to say "I don't feel well" or "I didn't play well" as opposed to "I don't feel good" or "I didn't play good". But in the sense of describing how a horse looks, it is OK to say "he looks good."
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#54
04-30-2012, 05:48 PM
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#56
04-30-2012, 06:19 PM
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The Palm Meadows work seems disconcerting, but the track was messy. I will be looking forward to hearing Welsch's comments on him when the horse finally makes his way to Churchill.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#57
04-30-2012, 06:58 PM
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Is anyone else finding it impossible to construct a cost-effective tickets for tris and supers? I may limit to exactas and then try the Pick 3/4 with 4-5 of my top selections....
Steve - You mention looking over the past few Derby charts...I've looked at the past 10 PPs for the Derby and tried to compare relative to eventual outcome. I've noticed the following: 1. This group is unlike any group in the past 10 years....or any year that I can remember to be exact. Each of them seem to primed for a top performance. 2. I've posted this before elsewhere, the past five winners have been setup so that the Derby is third off the bench. With that in mind, this angle fits seven horses: Trinniberg, Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat, Dullahan, Gemologist and Union Rags. Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat and Union Rags all appear to be training well at CD....Gemologist is undefeated and has two wins at the track...Dullahan seems plausible...Done Talking is logical underneath and Trinniberg is a toss. I'm scared of Bodemiester not being on that list, but I'm thinking about using 5 of the seven above in the multi's. Thoughts?
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#58
04-30-2012, 07:05 PM
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#59
04-30-2012, 07:23 PM
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Originally I was going to use El Padrino underneath in exotics. The thought was his style fits well with how the race will go pace wise and he's bred to go long. But his last work didn't sound good at all especially for a horse who thrives on the off going. Besides having a horse that gets injured every year for Pletcher he also has one that sours on him just before the Derby. Last year Brethren was one of his top colts and just went South.To the point of not even going to The Derby. The year before it was Rule. I think El Padrino just became a toss for me even at his price.
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#60
04-30-2012, 07:32 PM
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i'm still hung up on IC saying a point was mute, but that's a personal problem.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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