12/26 (SA): Malibu (G1), Sir Beaufort (G3), Cal Breeders (M/F)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's a big question mark, but I'm explaining it away with several excuses. His first attempt was on slop. In his second, he was 100-1 in the Fountain of Youth, had some trouble, and wasn't in good form to begin with. After one more poor effort, he was sent to the sidelines for 6 months. Giving him a pass for the Santa Anita effort, too, as he was tackling older foes off the aforementioned layoff in his first out for Bob Baffert. No surprise he moved up with his best career effort in his second start for the barn. In addition, he has absolutely ridiculous workouts over the track coming into this.

On a more cynical note, Martin Garcia opting for The Factor tallies another check for the positive column IMO.

He had a start before the slop attempt in which he was 8th, but I can sort of buy everything else. He just seems like a better fit for the Sir Beaufort to me.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

He had a start before the slop attempt in which he was 8th, but I can sort of buy everything else. He just seems like a better fit for the Sir Beaufort to me.

Thanks, stakes nom PPs didn't have his debut. In any other barn, he probably would be in the Sir Beaufort, but basically I'm working on the premise that his career in FL is meaningless at this point. This is a pretty weak renewal of the Malibu, with the feel of a conditions allowance race. He throttled some seasoned stakes horses (all of whom have seen better days, of course) in his last. Surface is a question mark, but his odds should be enticing enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Dahoss]

I'm kind of surprised they didn't try the Malibu with Comma to the Top. He certainly ran well enough last winter on dirt to be competitive in this race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm kind of surprised they didn't try the Malibu with Comma to the Top. He certainly ran well enough last winter on dirt to be competitive in this race.

It's funny, because Miller is essentially making the same mistake he did with Majestic City in the BC.

Either way, he's a bit up against it. He was laid up for an injury for 6 months and now would be making his 3rd start in one month. I'm glad he bounced right back last time, as his comeback was atrocious, but I think they're getting a little too greedy here. He makes more sense in races like the San Fernando and Strub anyways, where he can set or stalk a slow pace and try and give the closers the slip.

[RolloTomasi]

Another interesting horse would have been Sway Away, who unfortunately, isn't quite ready. He could make some noise in the top 7f races next year.