12/26 (SA): Malibu (G1), Sir Beaufort (G3), Cal Breeders (M/F)

RolloTomasi · #1 12-21-2011, 08:28 PM

One of the few times that the Malibu is composed almost entirely of sprinters. Not even a Triple Crown also-ran (they're in the Sir Beaufort earlier on the card) to make it interesting.

Going with Racing Aptitude, who won a couple of routes for Howie Tesher in FL earlier this year, and comes off a thorough dusting of his elders in a minor stakes at Hollywood. Runner-up Tweebster, one of the great Twirling Candy's vanquished foes last winter, came back to place in the G3 Native Diver and show horse El Gato Malo returned to win a recent turf allowance handily.

Centralinteligence has the pedigree to stretch out (and perhaps turf), but he's been pretty sharp sprinting and seems to have room to improve. Toss his Polytrack debacle and he looks solid.

Don't know what to make of Dutrow's ship-in. He's unbeatable at 7f at least in claimers and he seemed well-meant as a 2yo last year, running close to stakes horse Rogue Romance before converting to a typical Linda Rice turf sprinter. Closely related to the good Allen Paulson runner Dowty,

#2 12-21-2011, 09:38 PM

Is it me or are 7F races very rare nowadays.

Dahoss · #3 12-21-2011, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Is it me or are 7F races very rare nowadays.

It's you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Going with Racing Aptitude, who won a couple of routes for Howie Tesher in FL earlier this year, and comes off a thorough dusting of his elders in a minor stakes at Hollywood. Runner-up Tweebster, one of the great Twirling Candy's vanquished foes last winter, came back to place in the G3 Native Diver and show horse El Gato Malo returned to win a recent turf allowance handily.

I'm with you on Centralinteligence, I like him a lot. Are you concerned at all with how poorly Racing Aptitude has run on dirt previously?

RockHardTen1985 · #4 12-21-2011, 10:15 PM

This race is great, lots of things going on.
Horse I dont want any part of at all-

Associate. He will be bet a little Dutrow/Ramon to blow out wins. Tons of speed in here and he has beat nothing at all. He can beat me everyday in a spot like this.
The Factor. One of my favorites, but he feels like hes over the top. His last 2 leave a lot to be desired. Ill be hoping he runs well, but I wont have $1 on him. Wont even cover in multis.
Wine Police. Hes Ok, so are the 2 above but not in this spot and not for me. He never really moved forward this year off his 2yr old debut. He can beat me.
Racing Aptitude. Ran really well last time, but I highly doubt he can repeat that race vs a group like this. Hard for me to toss Baffert, but thats 2 now.
Light Up The Score. Not that this one will really be bet, but it is Steve A. Hes just not good enough, I doubt anyone will argue that.

Horses I like-

Rothko. Getting better with every race. I dont love him, but Ill cover him in my multis with 2 other horses. This guy has to be a price in this spot.
Smash. Obvious issues with this guy. He was supposed to be a Derby horse last year and was then off till May. First time since May he is pairing up races, second time in his brief career. If hes right, and you have to assume he is they wont beat him.
Hoorayforhollywood. Love everything about him, except the 2 short price seconds. The cutback works, has speed but has proven he can sit and win.
Those are the 3 Im using. Dont really get the Ellis horse at all, wont be using him.

Dahoss · #5 12-21-2011, 10:34 PM

What don't you get about the Ellis horse aside from not being trained by Baffert?

RockHardTen1985 · #6 12-21-2011, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What don't you get about the Ellis horse aside from not being trained by Baffert?

We both know it has nothing to do with Baffert. I dont like The Factor and he was my favorite 2yr old last year. For starters Smash already beat him, why is he going to improve and be better then Smash on Monday?

Dahoss · #7 12-21-2011, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

We both know it has nothing to do with Baffert. I dont like The Factor and he was my favorite 2yr old last year. For starters Smash already beat him, why is he going to improve and be better then Smash on Monday?

It's a bit more complicated then you are making it. Smash beat him a half length after looking like he was going to win by open lengths at the top of the stretch. To me, it seems like he is a horse heading in the right direction. His lone dirt start was a sharp effort and I have a lot more confidence in him running his race compared to Smash who is being kept together with scotch tape.

Again, what's not to get?

RockHardTen1985 · #8 12-21-2011, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's a bit more complicated then you are making it. Smash beat him a half length after looking like he was going to win by open lengths at the top of the stretch. To me, it seems like he is a horse heading in the right direction. His lone dirt start was a sharp effort and I have a lot more confidence in him running his race compared to Smash who is being kept together with scotch tape.

Again, what's not to get?

He will have to improve 10 beyer points off his lone dirt effort. I dont like the horse at all. This entire field with the exception of maybe The Factor feels like they are heading the right way, and even he has a chance to win.

RolloTomasi · #9 12-21-2011, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Are you concerned at all with how poorly Racing Aptitude has run on dirt previously?

It's a big question mark, but I'm explaining it away with several excuses. His first attempt was on slop. In his second, he was 100-1 in the Fountain of Youth, had some trouble, and wasn't in good form to begin with. After one more poor effort, he was sent to the sidelines for 6 months. Giving him a pass for the Santa Anita effort, too, as he was tackling older foes off the aforementioned layoff in his first out for Bob Baffert. No surprise he moved up with his best career effort in his second start for the barn. In addition, he has absolutely ridiculous workouts over the track coming into this.

On a more cynical note, Martin Garcia opting for The Factor tallies another check for the positive column IMO.

Dahoss · #10 12-21-2011, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It's a big question mark, but I'm explaining it away with several excuses. His first attempt was on slop. In his second, he was 100-1 in the Fountain of Youth, had some trouble, and wasn't in good form to begin with. After one more poor effort, he was sent to the sidelines for 6 months. Giving him a pass for the Santa Anita effort, too, as he was tackling older foes off the aforementioned layoff in his first out for Bob Baffert. No surprise he moved up with his best career effort in his second start for the barn. In addition, he has absolutely ridiculous workouts over the track coming into this.

On a more cynical note, Martin Garcia opting for The Factor tallies another check for the positive column IMO.

He had a start before the slop attempt in which he was 8th, but I can sort of buy everything else. He just seems like a better fit for the Sir Beaufort to me.

RolloTomasi · #11 12-21-2011, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

He had a start before the slop attempt in which he was 8th, but I can sort of buy everything else. He just seems like a better fit for the Sir Beaufort to me.

Thanks, stakes nom PPs didn't have his debut. In any other barn, he probably would be in the Sir Beaufort, but basically I'm working on the premise that his career in FL is meaningless at this point. This is a pretty weak renewal of the Malibu, with the feel of a conditions allowance race. He throttled some seasoned stakes horses (all of whom have seen better days, of course) in his last. Surface is a question mark, but his odds should be enticing enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Dahoss · #12 12-21-2011, 11:18 PM

I'm kind of surprised they didn't try the Malibu with Comma to the Top. He certainly ran well enough last winter on dirt to be competitive in this race.

RolloTomasi · #13 12-21-2011, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm kind of surprised they didn't try the Malibu with Comma to the Top. He certainly ran well enough last winter on dirt to be competitive in this race.

It's funny, because Miller is essentially making the same mistake he did with Majestic City in the BC.

Either way, he's a bit up against it. He was laid up for an injury for 6 months and now would be making his 3rd start in one month. I'm glad he bounced right back last time, as his comeback was atrocious, but I think they're getting a little too greedy here. He makes more sense in races like the San Fernando and Strub anyways, where he can set or stalk a slow pace and try and give the closers the slip.

Bigsmc · #14 12-22-2011, 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Is it me or are 7F races very rare nowadays.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's you.

I laughed.

Three of the first five races at Tampa today, are 7f.
Three of the first four races at Tampa on Friday, are 7f.

cakes44 · #15 12-22-2011, 11:27 AM

Love Rothko here.

RolloTomasi · #16 12-22-2011, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Love Rothko here.

Who would have thought Arch would sire a top sprinter? But this colt has looked pretty good in his last couple of starts. I wonder what sort of speed he will show. In his only 7f race prompted the pace and wilted. Considering the barn, his last two workouts have been very sharp.

In his only start over the track, he was well handled by Hoorayforhollywood. Both colts were making their debuts.

Indian Charlie · #17 12-22-2011, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Who would have thought Arch would sire a top sprinter? But this colt has looked pretty good in his last couple of starts. I wonder what sort of speed he will show. In his only 7f race prompted the pace and wilted. Considering the barn, his last two workouts have been very sharp.

In his only start over the track, he was well handled by Hoorayforhollywood. Both colts were making their debuts.

Hooray looks pretty tough here.

RolloTomasi · #18 12-22-2011, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hooray looks pretty tough here.

Seems like he has talent, but I never trust on the win end those horses that lose photos consistently. Baffert's loaded in this race, why doesn't he take the easy allowance money and wait for the San Fernando?

Kasept · #19 12-22-2011, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Who would have thought Arch would sire a top sprinter? But this colt has looked pretty good in his last couple of starts. I wonder what sort of speed he will show. In his only 7f race prompted the pace and wilted. Considering the barn, his last two workouts have been very sharp.

In his only start over the track, he was well handled by Hoorayforhollywood. Both colts were making their debuts.

Rothko looked scary good in that Churchill win on BC Friday..

I'd like Hooray to prove out too as I was stupid crazy about his dam.

RolloTomasi · #20 12-22-2011, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'd like Hooray to prove out too as I was stupid crazy about his dam.

That mare would have done a lot more if she hadn't been thrown to the wolves early on before ever winning a race. Plus, they felt the need to start her in a Breeder's Cup race every year regardless of form.