Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[Gaelic Storm]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Juvy Sprint:

Secret Circle towers over everyone else on form.

His debut win was a tremendously impressive performance on synthetic - and the horses he obliterated that day have all run back to or exceeded their figures.

He won with a dream stalk and go trip last time out. He was a clear 3rd behind lively paced duelers -- took command from softened up runners -- and had nothing of quality behind him to challenge him late.

Secret Circle is going to have to face more pressure, adversity and work harder early-on in this spot -- he's not going to be able to run his most efficent race like last time -- but it shouldn't matter. The day will start chalky.



Juvenile Fillies Turf:

I'm playing against 2-to-1 ML favorite Elusive Kate -- her Europeans races look great on paper - but I wasn't impressed when I studied them. Somali Lemonade (3-to-1 on the ML) is also a complete play against from the 14-hole.

Stopshoppingmaria's half siblings are a combined 0-for-19 in dirt routes versus 8-for-30 in turf races. Several of them performed best on turf. She gets more turf influence from sire More Than Ready. Connections are probably right going here instead of trying My Miss Arillua again in a large field two-turn dirt route. I think she's a wildcard and will include her.

Using 2, 4, 5, 6, and 8 in the multi-wins... all of them are 8-to-1 or more on the ML and a case could be made they are the five horses with the five best chances in this race after the post draw.


F AND M Sprint:

I think Switch is the most likely winner and Tanda (somehow 20/1 on the ML) has a very good look.

I am surprised everyone thinks Turbulant Descent will go favored in this race. I look forward to betting against her.


Juv Fillies:

If My Miss Aurelia relaxes early and is able to run an efficent race she will bury this field. She's out of Sea of Secrets sprinter My Miss Storm Cat and is a half to Albergatti (who got into a destructive speed duel when refusing to rate and caused a complete pace meltdown in his inital two-turn attempt)

Grace Hall, Weemiss Frankie, and Miss Netta are the three solid underneath horses -- and all would benefit tremendously and establish a stranglehold on this race if MMA refuses to relax and bombs.

Northern Passion was entered in the wrong race. She probably would have won the Filly turf race ... don't like her here in this hot paced dirt race. Her dam Touch Of Glory was a turf specialist who couldn't stand up on a dirt track.


Four races in so far. More to come later.

This is outstanding.
I get what you see in Tanda, but it worries me that the Acorn from last year was not a great field even though she made crazy wide run.

[parsixfarms]

I agree that Tanda makes a lot of sense in here, but I doubt her final odds are anything close to ridiculous morning line. Best fig came on dirt in Acorn (after dreadful start from rail), and she finally returns to that surface during what looks like improving form cycle since trainer change to Mitchell. While I respect Switch, I just get the feeling that she's going the wrong way (after two odds-on defeats in a row). Turbulent Descent fires every time, and 7F is probably her best distance. My gut says that Great Hot is better on dirt than synthetic, and and 7F also hits her between the eyes. She might be a live longshot.

[parsixfarms]

My Miss Aurelia looks like most talented filly in Juvenile Fillies, but with Say a Novena in post 13 with Trujillo, and Candrea in post 2, this race almost has to have a fast pace. I wonder where Miss Netta will be early on. She went wire-to-wire in debut, and improved figure in second start despite horrid start in Frizette. If she can rate, she could be in good spot with good post draw. If race falls apart, I wonder if Self Preservation could be a live longshot. Half-sister to Kissin Saint, she was inexplicably put on pace in well-bet Oak Leaf by P Val. Switch to Rosario almost assures she reverts to off the pace tactics employed successfully in Del Mar Debutante. Not sold on Grace Hall, whose signature win was a decidedly subpar edition of the Spinaway.

[parsixfarms]

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

http://hoovescapping.blogspot.com/

dont have time for friday but saturdays up for those who care..good luck at the bc

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

I don't disagree with your points, and Drysdale has excellent record in Cup. I just get the sense that, for her to win, there would have to be a complete meltdown, and horses like Royal Delta and Pachattack, who would ordinarily have first run on her, would have to not show up. I think she is entirely plausible as an "underneath" horse.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I agree that Tanda makes a lot of sense in here, but I doubt her final odds are anything close to ridiculous morning line. Best fig came on dirt in Acorn (after dreadful start from rail), and she finally returns to that surface during what looks like improving form cycle since trainer change to Mitchell. While I respect Switch, I just get the feeling that she's going the wrong way (after two odds-on defeats in a row). Turbulent Descent fires every time, and 7F is probably her best distance. My gut says that Great Hot is better on dirt than synthetic, and and 7F also hits her between the eyes. She might be a live longshot.

This.

[Calzone Lord]

Filly and Mare Turf:

I believe the post draw is very important on the turf at Churchill. I've seen the data going back 20-years and a wide draw hurts a lot more on this turf course than most others ... nevermind what happened last year when the course was slick and some Euro's complained about it. 20-years of data trumps one weekend worth.

I believe Misty For Me (10/1 on the ML) is clearly the best horse in this race. She's also the type of horse who improves coming to America from Europe. Her drawing post 12 in an absolute buzzkill in a 3-turn race, with a short run to the first turn, over this particular course.

Nahrain and Announce are the two Euro's who are taking all the support in Europe and will get bet here. Based on how I evalute Euro races -- they are exiting a dogsh!t race. It was a very slow G1 race IMO relative to course speed.

Also -- take a quick look at Nahrain's form. She makes her career debut just 5.5 months ago and goes off at 5/1 -- wins by just over a length over a horse who is still a maiden today. She's odds-on in non-Graded events 2nd and 3rd out -- wins both. She was only 3/1 in the De La Opera -- and she won it in a slow time of 2:02 3/5 (the Arc was run in course record time that day)

The two adopted-American horses Stacelita and Dubawai Heights both won the draw getting the rail and the 2 slot.

The draw made this a very annoying race and I'm probably just going to spread here (only eliminating the 10 and 11) and hope for Chaos like last years edition when Shared Account saved all the ground and won at 47/1.



Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty's 108 Beyer stands out like a sore thumb -- but it was earned over a VERY speed favoring racetrack that was initally labeled "good" -- was changed to "wet fast" and finally just "fast" by the middle of the card.

Virtually everything that led after a half mile won that day -- the lone exception being Flor De Amelia in the 8th race -- who failed to cash in on a loose lead and finished 2nd. She was 6th at 4-to-5 odds next time out.

The horse who stalked Plum Pretty at Philly was soundly defeated as a 4-to-5 favorite in a stakes race at Belmont as well.

It's Tricky is a very nice horse -- but she flopped the only two times she left the NYRA circuit.

I like Royal Delta to win this. Will be using Pacattack and Ask The Moon with her.



Marathon:

Giant Oak ran a very poor race at Hawthorne last time out. Sure, he was wide, but I felt that was a dead-rail day and he was on the best part of the track. Note how many horses who raced on the rail at HAW that day have improved greatly next out.

A. U. Minor should get Borel on the board. He made up a ton of ground in the final furlong of the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- he will get pace here.



Juvie Turf:


A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me.

Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses.


Sprint:


Apriority (30-to-1 on the ML) is 7-4-3-0 lifetime on fast dirt --- he's 8-0-3-0 lifetime on every other kind of surface.

He was a monster in Florida but has travelled all year and played plenty of road games... going to Santa Anita, Churchill, Aqu, Saratoga, and Belmont. I think he projects a perfect stalking trip with Rosario and hopefully he will recapture his best form with a good trip over a fast track. That 113 Beyer race from winter wins this.

Jackson Bend becomes the horse if the track is wet. I love his breeding for off-track and he ran huge last time out.

Not a fan of cutting back to 6fs off such an extremely slow paced mile race -- generally speaking, big cutbacks have a lot more success off of faster paced longer races. His Churchill Downs form is also a worry. He ran perhaps the two worst races of his life over CD.



Turf Sprint:

Perfect Officer wants 5 furlongs and he's drawn well in sharp form. I'll take that 12-to-1 ML on what -- to me -- looks like the most likely winner in this miserable race.



More later.

[VOL JACK]

A lot of good info there.

I just think the deck was really stacked against It's Tricky both times she left NY.

I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day. I am chalking his 113 Beyer to one of those Gulfstream Beyers that horses never seem to repeat.

[MaTH716]

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

She got a tremendous pace setup in there -- but yeah -- she's a threat to get a piece IMO.

Old Marty Wolfson's Ask The Moon -- according to pace figures -- is loose on the lead in the Distaff. If Plum Pretty wasn't so sharp right now -- I'd have taken ATM to wire them. I doubt PP lets her get loose though.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

Very interesting. Definately see her getting in top three.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day.

I heard a few minutes ago from someone at Churchill that two different clockers think he might be lame and he was one of the strongest negative touts of clockers.

Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I heard a few minutes ago from someone at Churchill that two different clockers think he might be lame and he was one of the strongest negative touts of clockers.

Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.

Didn't he run and/or train with an aluminum pad or bar shoe at Saratoga this summer? I haven't seen any such notation in any of the PPs this week. I, too, like his "fast" track form and believe that 6F is his best distance, but I sense his recent efforts may be as much about him going the wrong way as it is him disliking the wet tracks.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Juvie Turf:


A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me.

Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses.

This just feels like the Euro spot here. I watched Caspar's last race (on the straightaway) and he had a wall off horses in front of him most of the way before finding a seam on the rail and making a big move in that final furlong. Not sure how it's will translate to Churchill, but I think he has a good chance. I will be using Farraaj too.

[hockey2315]

Day two analysis: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...-saturday.html

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Day two analysis: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...-saturday.html

good stuff!