Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.
 

Juvy Sprint:

Secret Circle towers over everyone else on form.

His debut win was a tremendously impressive performance on synthetic - and the horses he obliterated that day have all run back to or exceeded their figures.

He won with a dream stalk and go trip last time out. He was a clear 3rd behind lively paced duelers -- took command from softened up runners -- and had nothing of quality behind him to challenge him late.

Secret Circle is going to have to face more pressure, adversity and work harder early-on in this spot -- he's not going to be able to run his most efficent race like last time -- but it shouldn't matter. The day will start chalky.



Juvenile Fillies Turf:

I'm playing against 2-to-1 ML favorite Elusive Kate -- her Europeans races look great on paper - but I wasn't impressed when I studied them. Somali Lemonade (3-to-1 on the ML) is also a complete play against from the 14-hole.

Stopshoppingmaria's half siblings are a combined 0-for-19 in dirt routes versus 8-for-30 in turf races. Several of them performed best on turf. She gets more turf influence from sire More Than Ready. Connections are probably right going here instead of trying My Miss Arillua again in a large field two-turn dirt route. I think she's a wildcard and will include her.

Using 2, 4, 5, 6, and 8 in the multi-wins... all of them are 8-to-1 or more on the ML and a case could be made they are the five horses with the five best chances in this race after the post draw.


F AND M Sprint:

I think Switch is the most likely winner and Tanda (somehow 20/1 on the ML) has a very good look.

I am surprised everyone thinks Turbulant Descent will go favored in this race. I look forward to betting against her.


Juv Fillies:

If My Miss Aurelia relaxes early and is able to run an efficent race she will bury this field. She's out of Sea of Secrets sprinter My Miss Storm Cat and is a half to Albergatti (who got into a destructive speed duel when refusing to rate and caused a complete pace meltdown in his inital two-turn attempt)

Grace Hall, Weemiss Frankie, and Miss Netta are the three solid underneath horses -- and all would benefit tremendously and establish a stranglehold on this race if MMA refuses to relax and bombs.

Northern Passion was entered in the wrong race. She probably would have won the Filly turf race ... don't like her here in this hot paced dirt race. Her dam Touch Of Glory was a turf specialist who couldn't stand up on a dirt track.


Four races in so far. More to come later.

Interesting stuff, thanks Doug.

This is very interesting, thanks for sharing. Just curious, but why are you against Turbulent Decent? The price will be short and I can see looking for value, but I don't see much wrong with what she has done this year.

Paul

I think #9 Pure Gossip (12:1ml) is a must use in the Juvy filly turf.

I also think Grace Hall will out finish MMA in deep stretch.
With some bomb like Putthebabiesdown or Say a Novena well back in 3rd.

In the F&M Sprint, Tanda will be a great horse to play Pick 3's into...she will go off around 8:1. I like Musical Romance, at a huge price, to key on underneath.
Her connections always cause her to get lost on the board. This is the one race where I am really going to go nuts betting exotics.

I disagree about Northern Passion's pedigree for dirt. . . I wouldn't say she'll move up on it, but I could see her handling it--especially with the fact that Casse opts to go here. Her dam's a full to Canadian ch. 2yo filly Ginger Gold, a MSW on dirt and second in the GI Selene S. over surface and distance. I also don't think Northern Passion has a turf action. I think there's a sneaky horse in this race if it collapses, and Northern Passion's that horse.

This is a good betting race. I can see a nice price coming in on this one.

She hasn't done much wrong this year -- but she's hardly much (if any) better than say a Champagne D' Oro was as a 3yo last year. Looking over her season...

She failed to crack a 90 Beyer in both of her two SA races this winter. She beat an attrocious field in the Beaumont in a race she couldn't lose on paper. They made her 3/5 in the Acorn and she was no match for It's Tricky. Her Test win was good .. but she got a textbook perfect trip --- and though she was wide that day... Thoro-Graph had that as a dead-rail day.

TD has never faced older horses -- I don't mind the fact that she's been laid up since August .. but it tells you her connections think her one real good figure in the Test might have took something out of her. When I go race-for-race on established form -- Switch is a better horse IMO. There are a lot of others in there who TD is close with who are 20/1 or so on the ML. I will hope the rest wasn't what the doctor ordered.

Agree with trying to beat Turbulent Descent. In addition to Switch and Tanda, I like Musical Romance and Great Hot as exotic possibilites.

But in the juvy Fillie Turf, I'm not read to toss Somali Lemonade just because of her post.Didn't Pluck win from way outside last year in the Juvy Turf race at the same distance?

Somali is a deep closer, Im not sure the post hurts her that much.

If I play this sequence, it'd be:

Secret Circle
Dear Lavinia, Elusive Kate, Northern Passion, Pure Gossip, Somali Lemonade
Pomeroys Pistol, Turbulent Descent
My Miss Aurelia

I agree with Calzone on TD. Too many questions as a likely short price. Switch looks like the obvious alternative. I'm looking for some sort of potential bomb underneath in this race as nce you get by the top 2 or 3 it's very wide open.

In the JFTurf, I'll keep Dayatthespa in the mix for exotics. Her Natalma from post 11 was not bad at all and she showed some rating gear sprinting at Saratoga in her debut. Chad Brown has plenty of experience at the big dance an Ramon rides.

Thought Dayatthespa warrants some attention. IMO, Ramon gave her a pretty impatient ride up at Woodbine (maybe out of circumstances), only to get caught by a couple late. Would probably not have tired if not for being hustled into a close stalking trip from the wide post. Could sit a nice trip here at a price.

I am seriously considering Champagne d'Oro as my underneath bomb in the FM Sprint, hoping she hasn't fallen off as far as she appears to have. Cannot think they are running her just to run.

Good stuff as always.

I'm taking a long look at Pomeroys Pistol in the FMS.

Calzone,

Keep it coming!!

Always an insightful commentary.

I'm digging through the FM Sprint now and I think that even if Switch or TD win (I prefer the former) the underneath spots could be filled by bombs. The tri's could be rich. Tanda and Tamarind Hall are interesting to me in underneath spots.

Since I'm a TRI/SPR player I'm also planning on using Shumoos in the Juv. Sprint. This is a dirt bred filly who has only run on grass and poly. Opinions?

Not too keen about Stopshoppingmaria in Fillies Turf. While I love More Than Ready as a turf sire, the female side of her family looks like "sprint" to me. The best siblings, including Sand Ridge, were all sprinters. While the mare produced a few minor winners on turf, none of the six horses out of the second dam that tried the grass won over that surface. This is a non-confident placement for a filly that could win a championship with a win in the dirt counterpart.

If I am going to use a horse who hasn't tried turf, I'd be inclined to look at Glen Hill's Customer Base. After a good-looking, well-bet maiden win, they tried to get pricey daughter of Lemon Drop Kid to the turf, but race was washed off. Tough post is biggest knock, but price should be right.

Well-drawn Dayatthespa looks like the horse to beat off good second in Natalma, in which she was the only horse near the strong pace who was around at the finish. Flattered when third-place finisher returned to win Alcibiades.

This is outstanding.
I get what you see in Tanda, but it worries me that the Acorn from last year was not a great field even though she made crazy wide run.

I agree that Tanda makes a lot of sense in here, but I doubt her final odds are anything close to ridiculous morning line. Best fig came on dirt in Acorn (after dreadful start from rail), and she finally returns to that surface during what looks like improving form cycle since trainer change to Mitchell. While I respect Switch, I just get the feeling that she's going the wrong way (after two odds-on defeats in a row). Turbulent Descent fires every time, and 7F is probably her best distance. My gut says that Great Hot is better on dirt than synthetic, and and 7F also hits her between the eyes. She might be a live longshot.

My Miss Aurelia looks like most talented filly in Juvenile Fillies, but with Say a Novena in post 13 with Trujillo, and Candrea in post 2, this race almost has to have a fast pace. I wonder where Miss Netta will be early on. She went wire-to-wire in debut, and improved figure in second start despite horrid start in Frizette. If she can rate, she could be in good spot with good post draw. If race falls apart, I wonder if Self Preservation could be a live longshot. Half-sister to Kissin Saint, she was inexplicably put on pace in well-bet Oak Leaf by P Val. Switch to Rosario almost assures she reverts to off the pace tactics employed successfully in Del Mar Debutante. Not sold on Grace Hall, whose signature win was a decidedly subpar edition of the Spinaway.