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#1
11-02-2011, 10:58 AM
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Filly and Mare Turf:
I believe the post draw is very important on the turf at Churchill. I've seen the data going back 20-years and a wide draw hurts a lot more on this turf course than most others ... nevermind what happened last year when the course was slick and some Euro's complained about it. 20-years of data trumps one weekend worth. I believe Misty For Me (10/1 on the ML) is clearly the best horse in this race. She's also the type of horse who improves coming to America from Europe. Her drawing post 12 in an absolute buzzkill in a 3-turn race, with a short run to the first turn, over this particular course. Nahrain and Announce are the two Euro's who are taking all the support in Europe and will get bet here. Based on how I evalute Euro races -- they are exiting a dogsh!t race. It was a very slow G1 race IMO relative to course speed. Also -- take a quick look at Nahrain's form. She makes her career debut just 5.5 months ago and goes off at 5/1 -- wins by just over a length over a horse who is still a maiden today. She's odds-on in non-Graded events 2nd and 3rd out -- wins both. She was only 3/1 in the De La Opera -- and she won it in a slow time of 2:02 3/5 (the Arc was run in course record time that day) The two adopted-American horses Stacelita and Dubawai Heights both won the draw getting the rail and the 2 slot. The draw made this a very annoying race and I'm probably just going to spread here (only eliminating the 10 and 11) and hope for Chaos like last years edition when Shared Account saved all the ground and won at 47/1. Ladies Classic: Plum Pretty's 108 Beyer stands out like a sore thumb -- but it was earned over a VERY speed favoring racetrack that was initally labeled "good" -- was changed to "wet fast" and finally just "fast" by the middle of the card. Virtually everything that led after a half mile won that day -- the lone exception being Flor De Amelia in the 8th race -- who failed to cash in on a loose lead and finished 2nd. She was 6th at 4-to-5 odds next time out. The horse who stalked Plum Pretty at Philly was soundly defeated as a 4-to-5 favorite in a stakes race at Belmont as well. It's Tricky is a very nice horse -- but she flopped the only two times she left the NYRA circuit. I like Royal Delta to win this. Will be using Pacattack and Ask The Moon with her. Marathon: Giant Oak ran a very poor race at Hawthorne last time out. Sure, he was wide, but I felt that was a dead-rail day and he was on the best part of the track. Note how many horses who raced on the rail at HAW that day have improved greatly next out. A. U. Minor should get Borel on the board. He made up a ton of ground in the final furlong of the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- he will get pace here. Juvie Turf: A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me. Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses. Sprint: Apriority (30-to-1 on the ML) is 7-4-3-0 lifetime on fast dirt --- he's 8-0-3-0 lifetime on every other kind of surface. He was a monster in Florida but has travelled all year and played plenty of road games... going to Santa Anita, Churchill, Aqu, Saratoga, and Belmont. I think he projects a perfect stalking trip with Rosario and hopefully he will recapture his best form with a good trip over a fast track. That 113 Beyer race from winter wins this. Jackson Bend becomes the horse if the track is wet. I love his breeding for off-track and he ran huge last time out. Not a fan of cutting back to 6fs off such an extremely slow paced mile race -- generally speaking, big cutbacks have a lot more success off of faster paced longer races. His Churchill Downs form is also a worry. He ran perhaps the two worst races of his life over CD. Turf Sprint: Perfect Officer wants 5 furlongs and he's drawn well in sharp form. I'll take that 12-to-1 ML on what -- to me -- looks like the most likely winner in this miserable race. More later. 
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#2
11-02-2011, 02:08 PM
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A lot of good info there.
I just think the deck was really stacked against It's Tricky both times she left NY. I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day. I am chalking his 113 Beyer to one of those Gulfstream Beyers that horses never seem to repeat. Last edited by VOL JACK : 11-02-2011 at 07:20 PM.
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#3
11-02-2011, 02:12 PM
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I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#4
11-02-2011, 02:16 PM
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Old Marty Wolfson's Ask The Moon -- according to pace figures -- is loose on the lead in the Distaff. If Plum Pretty wasn't so sharp right now -- I'd have taken ATM to wire them. I doubt PP lets her get loose though.
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#5
11-02-2011, 02:23 PM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#6
11-02-2011, 02:27 PM
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Friday thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...is-friday.html
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#7
11-02-2011, 02:30 PM
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#8
11-02-2011, 02:37 PM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!" Last edited by MaTH716 : 11-02-2011 at 02:50 PM.
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#9
11-02-2011, 07:56 PM
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#10
11-03-2011, 09:59 AM
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Dirt Mile:
Uncle Mo would have been a sensational bet-against at a short-price had he entered this race. People keep talking about "getting a distance" -- for a horse like Uncle Mo - this would have been a SUPER HARD mile to get ... where the Classic -- by BC Classic standerds -- looks to be an extremely easy 10 furlongs this year. The Factor couldn't "get" six furlongs in the Ancient Title - he stopped and was off the board at 2/5 odds. Because The Factor failed to stay six furlongs in Ancient Title -- does that mean he doesn't have enough stamina to get six furlongs? Obviously, he stopped because of early pressure through uncomfortably fast fractions. To Honor and Serve couldn't "get" 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam - he faded badly in the stretch and quit at 7/2 odds. Because To Honor And Serve failed to stay 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam -- does that mean he doesn't have the stamina to get 6.5 furlongs and should thus cut-back? No -- he stopped because he couldn't handle the uncomfortably fast fractions. He improved leaps and bounds on the stretch out to route distances. Uncle Mo didn't quite "get" a hard 7 furlongs in the King's Bishop ... and this spot would have been a ruthlessly hard to get 8 furlongs for a horse of his style. Six horses in this race have run pace figures open lengths faster than he's ever run in his life. He's not a closing sprinter/miler ... he's proven he will rate kindly when he's on the lead or an outside 2nd -- but he's never proven himself as a closing sprinter. Uncle Mo would have been dressed down had he run in this race. IMO -- a great bet against and a good chance of missing the top 3 at a short price if he didn't bring his good race. I like Wilburn to win this race from well off the pace. Going to try to get Tres Borrachos underneath at a price. He was taken out of his game in the Goodwood and projects for a very good trip. The Turf: The Arc was a sensationally fast race and was run like an American turf race. I'm hoping St. Nicholas Abbey is the Euro most ignored in here. I like him. The American's have no shot in this race -- and I'm negative on the chances of Midday and Sea Moon (winner last out flopped in the Arc -- he was blocked last out, horses with his style aren't the kind that move-up over here) Juvenile: Take Charge Indy (30-1 on the ML) has a total dirt pedigree (AP Indy - Take Charge Lady) ... he's run three outstanding races on synthetic. There could be sharp improvment in him. Union Rags is clearly the best horse in this race -- but from the 10-hole and at a short price in his first two-turn attempt... I'm going to spread against him. His Champagne win was great visually -- but the Frizette was on the same card and produced a faster final time. Mile: I don't like the chances of the 6, 9, 12, and 13 at all. Gio Ponti is perfectly drawn -- 8f is his best distance... but he's a classic hanger who only goes by very late for the win at the expense of Get Stormy denied an early lead, or Mission Approved off of a claiming race last out, or when a hapless plug like Society's Chairmen is the only other one left standing at the 1/8th pole. Gio Ponti to finish 2nd in a textbook back-wheel bet. Classic: Uncle Mo's perfectly drawn. His only pace rival is former plodder Game on Dude... a horse who stalked from 4th in last years 49-flat half-mile Belmont Stakes. To Honor And Serve is ridden by the smart Jose Lezcano -- anyone familar with his riding M. O. knows he's going to aim for that perfect stalk-and-go trip from 3rd. This should be a fairly soft and easy 1 1/4 mile race. Like it was the year former BC Sprint placed Black Tie Affair won this race at Churchill wire-to-wire with a 120 Beyer. Like it was when Velazquez opted to avoid the duel above Roses in May and allow Ghostzapper an unpressured lead. That said -- Flat Out is still the most likely winner of this race. He's run 4 straight sensational races ever since an issue with his foot was addressed. He's in a razor sharp form and you can trust him. Projected favorite Uncle Mo is basically a cripple with just two good one-turn races in a year under his belt. Havre De Grace has failed to fend off Blind Luck twice at 10fs in much smaller fields where her tactical speed edge should have been more of an advantage. So You Think is a turf horse with no dirt pedigree. The 3-year-olds have been much maligned all year and Stay Thirsty has struggled when he's left the NYRA circuit ... he was totally drowned by Uncle Mo with a great trip here last year. He was a total non-factor in the Kentucky Derby. He was nowhere when shipped to Florida for the FLA Derby. It's hard to trust him unleashing a breakthrough race here. I'm going to try and get Headache 3rd or 4th or even 5th if they have a super high five. His alw win over this track was very impressive. He had no shot on the Whitney and Thoro-Graph claims his nice turn move was made on a dead-rail. Also, I thought the Hawthorne Gold Cup Beyer might have been on the low side. They had everyone either getting back to their last number or running far below it -- including some very consistant horses.
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#11
11-03-2011, 02:15 PM
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#12
11-02-2011, 02:13 PM
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Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.
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#13
11-02-2011, 02:37 PM
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#14
11-03-2011, 10:12 AM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#15
11-03-2011, 11:33 AM
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Day two analysis: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...-saturday.html
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#16
11-03-2011, 12:45 PM
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#17
11-03-2011, 01:08 PM
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i see a bit of a pattern in all my cyber stalking of the internet picks and who i talk too..
1 that st nicholas abby will be ovelooked.and that take chrge lady will run huge at a big number. i think both are wrong.. my 2c
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#18
11-03-2011, 01:32 PM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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Hybrid Mode
