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#1
10-27-2011, 11:12 AM
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To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
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#2
10-27-2011, 11:24 AM
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Toss. She can beat me again I guess.
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#3
10-27-2011, 02:46 PM
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Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond. Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#4
10-27-2011, 02:49 PM
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I have no problem tossing her in the pick 3's. Beating her turns your payout to an overlay, period. This group she is facing is strong enough. The Euro's look good. Mott's horse is good, and I'll give Mr. Commons a shot. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.
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#5
10-27-2011, 03:15 PM
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Fair, enough... but were you saying the same any of the last 3 years? As I said, I really haven't looked at the other entrants enough in depth yet to really make up my mind. I might end up agreeing with you. It's just she's the known commodity, and without looking that hard it's pretty fair to say every year that what she faces in Europe is usually is as strong if not stronger than what she faces when she comes here.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#6
10-27-2011, 03:18 PM
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#7
10-27-2011, 03:22 PM
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all I'm getting at, is I don't wanna get beat by her. I don't wanna be wrong in that race by leaving her out. Even if she's over-bet. Will I single her? Hell no. But you gotta have her on your tickets I think, because you'll feel dumb about it after if you don't.
Sucks too, because as fun as she is to watch, the Mile you could argue was always crazy for long-shots and unpredictability. I'm still scratching my head on how the Rock lost that race years ago. But on the flip side, I had Singletary.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#8
10-27-2011, 03:26 PM
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Do you really want to miss hitting the P4 by missing her leg? I don't
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#10
10-27-2011, 05:50 PM
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__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#11
10-27-2011, 08:00 PM
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#12
10-27-2011, 11:27 AM
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Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.
Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.
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#13
10-27-2011, 12:11 PM
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She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced. It reminds me of a buddy of mine when we were discussing Ouija Board opting for the FM Turf over the open Turf..."She's going down in class for this race". You could make the same argument for Goldlikova here. She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#14
10-27-2011, 12:45 PM
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Track 2010 2011 LCH 1.5 2.5 ASC 1.5 0.75 DEA 1.5 1.75 DEA 2.25 1.75 LCH 1.5 0.75
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#15
10-27-2011, 01:26 PM
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she gained a 1/4 pt. Wow Though don't think she's got a chance to equal last year's BC TG# of 2neg Would love to see her win again but my tix as well will be against her.
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#16
10-27-2011, 01:30 PM
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For the first time in several years, I won't single her race in my multi-race tickets but I will be using her in my exacta. I fully expect her to win.
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#17
10-27-2011, 01:40 PM
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Historically speaking, I feel that she is a tad bit overrated.
Despite what her trainer says, I'd still take Miesque over her.
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#18
10-27-2011, 02:27 PM
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__________________
don't run out of ammo.
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#19
10-27-2011, 02:33 PM
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#20
10-27-2011, 04:29 PM
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I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field. There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff. Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.
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