Goldikova: Lost a step or as good as ever?
 

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tter-than-ever

Okay, so this is the first I'm hearing that she's as good as she was for previous attempts. Freddy Head is saying bah humbug to anybody who thinks otherwise. The DRF rundown of the pre-entries mentioned that she'd lost a step as have guests on ATR. Is Freddy being sentimental, or is there reason to think he's right?

Play against IMO...

If anyone feels Goldikova has slowed down a step at age 6, her trainer Freddy Head is more than willing to convince you otherwise.

As the three-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT) prepares to embark on her historic journey and her quest for victory No. 4, Head is confident the daughter of Anabaa is sitting on another big effort and is amazed how well she is doing for her return to the United States.



“She should be in her stall at Churchill Downs around 6 o’clock Saturday evening and I’m dying to be there,” he said. “I’m very happy with the mare and I believe she’s in as good a shape as in previous years. It seems unreal that she’s trying to win a fourth Breeders’ Cup.



"I’m very happy with her since her last run. She was only beaten a head (In the group I, seven-furlong Qatar Prix de la Foret) and earlier in the year, she was second (to Canford Cliffs in the group I Queen Anne Stakes) at Ascot. I knew that would be a tough test, because Ascot is a very testing course. She was unlucky at Deauville (in the group I Prix de Fresnay-le-Buffard-Le Jacques le Marois).



“If all goes well I think she has a big chance. She’s very special and she loves the two turns and left-handed tracks. She loves the way races are run in America and wants fast ground, not too soft. I think she’ll take a lot of beating. She looks the same, she works the same at home, and he form is as good or even better than last year. I’m coming with a lot of confidence.”



As long as he’s been riding and training, Head admits he can’t recall ever seeing a horse like Goldikova, and that includes Head’s dual Mile winner, the great Miesque.



“I try to remember ever seeing a horse like her, but I can’t,” Head said. “In France, we’ve never had a horse who has lasted for so long. It’s very special to train a 6-year-old mare. I never did, so all this is new territory for me. I’ve been very happy with her all year. As I said, she’s as good as she’s ever been.”



In five starts this year, Goldikova, owned by Wertheimer & Frere, has won twice, with three seconds--her victories coming in the group I Prix d’Ispahan and Prix Rothschild. She not only won both those stakes last year, she has won the Prix Rothschild the past four years.

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1bz9BCqTm

You'd be a fool if you don't use her in multi-race plays, she'll be a "B" for me in those...but it's hard to ignore that her best peformances have ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY been in the past. You have to ask yourself if you think she re-finds that form in this race, against some European competition that has pointed to this race a long way out (Strong Suit), and one who found his best form last time and had that win franked substantially (Byword). With an in-form Courageous Cat and the late kick Gio Ponti showed last time...I think you could argue this is definitely the best field she's faced in the last four runnings, all at a time when she seems to have regressed just slightly.

I say...tip your hat if she wins, bet with 1.5 fists against, hedge slightly in multi-race plays, using her defensively.

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced. It reminds me of a buddy of mine when we were discussing Ouija Board opting for the FM Turf over the open Turf..."She's going down in class for this race". You could make the same argument for Goldlikova here. She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

she gained a 1/4 pt. Wow

Though don't think she's got a chance to equal last year's BC TG# of 2neg

Would love to see her win again but my tix as well will be against her.

For the first time in several years, I won't single her race in my multi-race tickets but I will be using her in my exacta. I fully expect her to win.

Historically speaking, I feel that she is a tad bit overrated.

Despite what her trainer says, I'd still take Miesque over her.

Miesque is dead, I say she wins by a mile, literally.

Many thanks philcski!

I agree with IC. I dont think 1 horse that has ran 2-3 to her in her BC run would be called a great. Plus horses that are beating her this year are coming back to run awful. She is great, but overrated is fair.

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

I have no problem tossing her in the pick 3's. Beating her turns your payout to an overlay, period. This group she is facing is strong enough. The Euro's look good. Mott's horse is good, and I'll give Mr. Commons a shot. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.

Fair, enough... but were you saying the same any of the last 3 years? As I said, I really haven't looked at the other entrants enough in depth yet to really make up my mind. I might end up agreeing with you. It's just she's the known commodity, and without looking that hard it's pretty fair to say every year that what she faces in Europe is usually is as strong if not stronger than what she faces when she comes here.

I have tossed her the last 2 years.

all I'm getting at, is I don't wanna get beat by her. I don't wanna be wrong in that race by leaving her out. Even if she's over-bet. Will I single her? Hell no. But you gotta have her on your tickets I think, because you'll feel dumb about it after if you don't.

Sucks too, because as fun as she is to watch, the Mile you could argue was always crazy for long-shots and unpredictability. I'm still scratching my head on how the Rock lost that race years ago. But on the flip side, I had Singletary.