You have to be able to forecast the odds correctly to determine that.
Had I posted "a pick" before the race .... I would have "picked" Elite Alex (who was 8/1 on the ML) versus Archarcharch (who was 12/1 on the ML)
That's really not even the reason why I don't bother posting picks .... it's because of the ankle-biting I put up with afterwards when one of them losses.