The Wood

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It's fine to hate Uncle Mo, but how many folks are going to bet Toby's Corner in the Derby? As much as I think Motion is a good dude, if the choice is between Uncle Mo and Toby's Corner on May 7th, I'm taking Uncly 100 times out of 100.

Really?

If you're betting on Uncle Mo in this year's Derby you are doing it based on something that has not even happened in 2011. You'd be doing it based on 2YO form and, I needn't even really say it, is a horrible approach in a race like the Derby.

Toby's Corner is not much horse but he at least is going to get a good pace setup in the Derby (more likely than not) and responded kindly to an equipment change for a good trainer.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really?

If you're betting on Uncle Mo in this year's Derby you are doing it based on something that has not even happened in 2011. You'd be doing it based on 2YO form and, I needn't even really say it, is a horrible approach in a race like the Derby.

Toby's Corner is not much horse but he at least is going to get a good pace setup in the Derby (more likely than not) and responded kindly to an equipment change for a good trainer.

Given that the form of 99.83 percent of 3YO's in 2011 has been mediocre to poor, going off the juvenile champion's form is probably just as worthwhile in a dart board race like the Kentucky Derby as any other handicapping method, IMO. Particularly off ONE poor start.

Six times in the last ten years a horse has won the Derby off a loss in his last prep.