2/5-6 (SA): Las Virgenes, Thunder Rd, Strub; San Antonio

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Rollo, I think it is premature to write off a horse based on one race, namely the Goodwood.

Perhaps he just didn't fire his best race that day.

Or, perhaps, as Freddy said, it was a learning experience. Keep in mind that he was still a pretty lightly raced 3yo at that point going against much more experienced older horses.

His overall race record, minus the Goodwood, shows a horse that is still on the improve.

I'm not trying to write him off at all. He's probably a superior sprinter/miler. But he has yet to prove himself a superior two-turn horse, much less the "best horse in America".

Beyond 8f though, I think he's quite vulnerable. He's had two cakewalks, the Del Mar Derby and the Strub, and one schooling in the Goodwood. From my viewpoint, he ran the same race in the latter two. The only difference (unless you want to bring up surface) was the competition. In that regard I don't think you can say he's "improving" based on his flashy Strub win. Any other manner of victory in that poor edition of the race would have actually exposed him.

Unfortunately, even if he avoids the dreaded "minor setback" that leads to retirement, he'll probably only get one true acid test this year (of course, the end-all BC Classic) to prove his worth. One look at the San Antonio group (how the hell did Aggie Engineer become an odds-on stakes horse? This time last year I would have expected him to be running in high-priced claimers) foretells the events of this spring/summer at Hollywood and Del Mar.

All that aside, given the race setup, how do you think he would have fared in the Donn?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not trying to write him off at all. He's probably a superior sprinter/miler. But he has yet to prove himself a superior two-turn horse, much less the "best horse in America".

Beyond 8f though, I think he's quite vulnerable. He's had two cakewalks, the Del Mar Derby and the Strub, and one schooling in the Goodwood. From my viewpoint, he ran the same race in the latter two. The only difference (unless you want to bring up surface) was the competition. In that regard I don't think you can say he's "improving" based on his flashy Strub win. Any other manner of victory in that poor edition of the race would have actually exposed him.

Unfortunately, even if he avoids the dreaded "minor setback" that leads to retirement, he'll probably only get one true acid test this year (of course, the end-all BC Classic) to prove his worth. One look at the San Antonio group (how the hell did Aggie Engineer become an odds-on stakes horse? This time last year I would have expected him to be running in high-priced claimers) foretells the events of this spring/summer at Hollywood and Del Mar.

All that aside, given the race setup, how do you think he would have fared in the Donn?

I haven't watched the Donn, but knowing those horses, I gotta believe something is fishy with them getting a higher BSF than TC got in the Strub.

Without having seen it, I could see the pace being an issue like you said, but I'd have been shocked to see him run 6th by 9.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I haven't watched the Donn, but knowing those horses, I gotta believe something is fishy with them getting a higher BSF than TC got in the Strub.

Without having seen it, I could see the pace being an issue like you said, but I'd have been shocked to see him run 6th by 9.

What the heck does the Strub fig have to do with the Donn fig?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What the heck does the Strub fig have to do with the Donn fig?

Someone mentioned it in this argument, that's all.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What the heck does the Strub fig have to do with the Donn fig?

Pathetic, Freddy. You're gonna try and suggest that the Beyer speed figures for those two races are not relevant to the debate?

Hmmm. Wonder why?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Pathetic, Freddy. You're gonna try and suggest that the Beyer speed figures for those two races are not relevant to the debate?

Hmmm. Wonder why?

GP figs are completely useless and the pace in the Donn was fast(who really knows) and figs for SA are still based on a track that is very new. Neither tracks figs are as important as they should be.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

GP figs are completely useless and the pace in the Donn was fast(who really knows) and figs for SA are still based on a track that is very new. Neither tracks figs are as important as they should be.

I wonder if you'd say the same if Twirling Candy at least equaled his Malibu figure in the Strub.

Probably not.