11/27 (AQU): Cigar (G1); Gazelle, Remsen, Demoiselle (G2's)

[Betsy]

The Gazelle just went a full second slower than the Remsen...........

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

The Gazelle just went a full second slower than the Remsen...........

A full second would be 9 points.

Gazelle winner No Such Word ran a 91 and 95 in her last two. 2nd place Awesome Maria has run all 80's her entire career.

Without putting any time into it - you're probably looking at a 101-to-104 for To Honor and Serve.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A full second would be 9 points.

Gazelle winner No Such Word ran a 91 and 95 in her last two. 2nd place Awesome Maria has run all 80's her entire career.

Without putting any time into it - you're probably looking at a 101-to-104 for To Honor and Serve.

So when you calculate BSF then, a horses career form plays a big part in it? They assume that a horse isn't going to freak or just run too bad to be true?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

So when you calculate BSF then, a horses career form plays a big part in it? They assume that a horse isn't going to freak or just run too bad to be true?

The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.

Thank you for explaining this to me. I think I get the general idea, but I admit it's still a bit confusing. Then again, no one ever accused me of being a math whiz, lol

[Dahoss]

Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

Did TFF give you that one?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Well for instance, you mentioned several horses' general career BSF ranges and I thought you were saying that since, say No Such Word generally runs in the 91-95 range, she probably ran that today............and if a 1 second difference between the Remsen and Gazelle equates to 9 points, then that would be approximately a 104 for THAS. If I'm mistaken, I apologize.

Yes. Let's assume To Honor And Serve ran a 104 today. That would mean ...

No Such Word won the Gazelle with a 95. She has run 91, 95, and 94 in her three most recent starts.

Awesome Marian ran a 91 today while 2nd in the Gazelle. She has run an 87 and 89 in her last two dirt races.

Seeking the Title ran an 88 today while 3rd. Her last three numbers were 75, 89, and 92.


Dixie City ran a 79 while winning the Demoiselle. Her last two numbers are 75 and 76.

Believe in AP ran a 74 while running 2nd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 75.

Tap For Luck ran a 55 while running 3rd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 61.


To Honor and Serve ran a 104 for winning the Remsen. His last two are 97 and 95.

Mucho Macho Man ran a 101 for running 2nd. His last two are 89 and 82.

Mountain Town ran a 96. He ran a 85 last time when 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Champagne.

Bandbox ran a 74 in the Remsen - his last two are 75 and 86

Buffum ran a 71. He won his debut with a 96. Obviously he's a 2nd time starter who had some early trouble and didn't run his race.

[Betsy]

Per Andy's tweet, THAS got a 102 BSF and Jersey Town a 107