Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think the time of the race is very misleading because every day at Churchill the track slows down over the course of the day. I don't know if it was like that in past years but I've noticed that consistently this year.

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

My point is that I think if the race went earlier in the day, they run 2:01 1/5 or so rather than 2:02 1/5.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

My point is that I think if the race went earlier in the day, they run 2:01 1/5 or so rather than 2:02 1/5.

My point is that you have no idea what you're talking about if you think that.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

Yeah - look where Haynesfield finished in relation to Blame and Fly Down last time out ....

Look where Haynesfield finished in relation to them today.

Nothing changed - the distance was 10fs both races. The pace pressure was a lot more in here.

[slotdirt]

Definitely looked like a meltdown.

That being said, I have a lot more respect for Zenyatta the racehorse today than I did yesterday.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - look where Haynesfield finished in relation to Blame and Fly Down last time out ....

Look where Haynesfield finished in relation to them today.

Nothing changed - the distance was 10fs both races. The pace pressure was a lot more in here.

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

If First Dude runs in an N1X next time out - he'll be the biggest standout ever on paper...and even he couldn't get himself beat against N1X's

[RockHardTen1985]

[quote=The Indomitable DrugS;718374]First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

I know if he was mine I would bring him back in a N1X at Gulfstream... Get that confidence going.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

If First Dude runs in an N1X next time out - he'll be the biggest standout ever on paper...and even he couldn't get himself beat against N1X's

That is a ridiculous argument. QR and Haynesfield could not keep up with First Dude. It would be one thing if QR and Haynesfield caught First Dude but then gave up when the come-from-behinders blew by. That wasn't what happened. QR and Haynefield could not keep up with First Dude. They didn't have it today.

What if there were no come-from behinders in this race? If this was only a 4 horse field with QR, Haynesfield, First Dude, and Espoir City and the race unfolded the same way, what would have happened? The same thing would have happened. Then you couldn't have afgued that the pace was too fast because First Dude would have gone wire-to-wire.

And QR doesn't usually quit when he gets beat. He's gotten beat plenty of times in the past and he always hit the board.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

It was a solid pace. But you can't blame the poor performance of most of those horses on the pace. First Dude was on the lead. He was going faster than anyone yet he beat Quality Road by 18 lengths. And he beat Haynesfield by 12 lengths.

I personally think :47 is too fast for First Dude. I think he is a better horse from off the pace. He ended up getting beat today by 10 lengths. If he drops 5 lengths back like he probably should have, I'm sure he would have finished a few lengths closer.

What would par be for pace in this race? As I said, I think the track was quite a bit slower for the Classic because the track has been slowing down later in the day at Churchill this year. So :47 is a very solid pace. But in a race like this with the best horses in the country, I would expect a solid pace.

[GPK]

Anyone know if the Tarheels won today?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

1:11.01 is a fast pace. The race completely collapsed. The top three were 7th, 12th and 10th at the 6F mark.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

That would give Uncle Mo a 107...

I'd have Blame/Zenyatta 108 - Uncle Mo 105

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That would give Uncle Mo a 107...

I'd have Blame/Zenyatta 108 - Uncle Mo 105

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

That's not really how it works.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

That's not really how it works.

How does it work? Please enlighten me.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How does it work? Please enlighten me.

What evidence do you have that the track was slowing down? It has been open for what? Three days before this? Are you basing this on what was going on months ago before the extreme drought? I guess we'll just assume every horse ran their top and work it out that way. . . It's obviously going to be a tough fig to make, and one that won't really tell us anything.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

The pace was SUICIDAL...It was totally brutal.