Zenyatta

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You might be right. It's hard to say. The filly that won the 2nd race looks like a nice filly and I would have exepcted her final time to be about a second or so faster than the winner of the final race. So that is evidence that does not support my argument.

On the other hand, the 9th race that day (an allowance race that was as strong as a stakes race) went in 1:19. That $40k filly that won the 1st race ran 1:12 3/5 which is almost as fast. Yet I don't think that filly would have finished within 5 lengths if she was in the 9th race. To me that is some evidence that the track was slower later in the day.

So I don't know. There is conflicting evidence.

There isn't as much difference between a $40k claimer and an N1X for 2yo's; hell, Nina Fever ran the best 2yo non-stake race for winners at KEE this fall in a $30k race. I think the reason for this is most 2yo's with ability get tossed straight into stakes and skip allowance company.

I didn't think a whole lot of that allowance race when I looked at it, to be honest.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

There isn't as much difference between a $40k claimer and an N1X for 2yo's; hell, Nina Fever ran the best 2yo non-stake race for winners at KEE this fall in a $30k race. I think the reason for this is most 2yo's with ability get tossed straight into stakes and skip allowance company.

I didn't think a whole lot of that allowance race when I looked at it, to be honest.

In general you are right that most 2yo's with ability do go straight into stakes races and the2 year old allowance races often times are not that strong. But this was not a typical 2 year old allowance race. The favorite in there had just won easily at Belmont and run a 93 Beyer. The 2nd choice in there won by 10 lengths first time out at Calder and got an 80 Beyer. That horse was purchased privately after that race for $350,000 and would have gone for more if he wasn't by D' Wildcat. This was his first start since the purchase. Then there was the Catalano horse had just run 4th in the Grade III Arlington Washington Futurity. And then there was the Pletcher who had been working heads up with More Than Real and Pluck. On paper, it looked like a stakes race.