Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think what might get lost here is how horrid this field was in relation to past editions of this race.

Whoever was riding First Dude caused a huge pace collapse .. it basically was supposed to be a stone cold Blame 1st and Fly Down 2nd type of race at that point. Credit John Shireffs - he has an amazing record when he points for an objective. Zenyatta ran much better than I thought she would.

The final time was a joke. Uncle Mo is going to get a Beyer figure only 3 full points slower than Blame will for winning a wildly sub-par edition of the Classic.

I remember everyone make a huge deal about about how Arazi was the star of the 1991 Breeders Cup ... keep in mind he needed 1:46.40 in his blowout win over Bertrando.. Uncle Mo needed 1:42.60 today ... his final time was 3.80 full seconds (or 22 lengths) faster than Arazi's in his destruction Bertrando.

Blame's final time of 2:02.28 - was just 0.52 seconds faster than Black Tie Affair's 2:02.80 Breeders Cup Classic win at Churchill also in 1991.

It's a pretty sad statement to the older males when you have a horse like Blame - who's run Beyers in the 101-to-103 range in five of his last six career starts .. and even so I thought enough of him to make him my 2nd pick in this race in the paper today.

There was no slouch like Volponi or Mine That Bird out there today to deep six this field and make a mockery of them ... but this group was asking for it. Japan sent over the wrong horse. A speedy miler off of a bad prep .. had they sent over some late running dirt closer in halfway decent form - they probably win this.

I think the time of the race is very misleading because every day at Churchill the track slows down over the course of the day. I don't know if it was like that in past years but I've noticed that consistently this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think the time of the race is very misleading because every day at Churchill the track slows down over the course of the day. I don't know if it was like that in past years but I've noticed that consistently this year.

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

My point is that I think if the race went earlier in the day, they run 2:01 1/5 or so rather than 2:02 1/5.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

My point is that I think if the race went earlier in the day, they run 2:01 1/5 or so rather than 2:02 1/5.

My point is that you have no idea what you're talking about if you think that.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was consistant ... just as Blame is amazingly consistant when it comes to running Beyers in the 101-to-103 range and 3rd place finisher Fly Down is amazingly consistant at running Beyers in the 93-to-98 range.

5 of Blame's last 6 Beyers were in that range - and 4 of 5 Fly Down's last five starts were.

Obviously Uncle Mo would have got soundly beaten in the Classic because he's a speed horse and would have been forced to deal with the other four horses battling it out who all got beat by a mile... but this race was as sub par as it gets.

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

Yeah - look where Haynesfield finished in relation to Blame and Fly Down last time out ....

Look where Haynesfield finished in relation to them today.

Nothing changed - the distance was 10fs both races. The pace pressure was a lot more in here.

[slotdirt]

Definitely looked like a meltdown.

That being said, I have a lot more respect for Zenyatta the racehorse today than I did yesterday.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - look where Haynesfield finished in relation to Blame and Fly Down last time out ....

Look where Haynesfield finished in relation to them today.

Nothing changed - the distance was 10fs both races. The pace pressure was a lot more in here.

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

If First Dude runs in an N1X next time out - he'll be the biggest standout ever on paper...and even he couldn't get himself beat against N1X's

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For 10 furlongs, that's very fast, and the 1-2-3-4 runners finished 8-12-10-11. It was a meltdown.

It was a solid pace. But you can't blame the poor performance of most of those horses on the pace. First Dude was on the lead. He was going faster than anyone yet he beat Quality Road by 18 lengths. And he beat Haynesfield by 12 lengths.

I personally think :47 is too fast for First Dude. I think he is a better horse from off the pace. He ended up getting beat today by 10 lengths. If he drops 5 lengths back like he probably should have, I'm sure he would have finished a few lengths closer.

What would par be for pace in this race? As I said, I think the track was quite a bit slower for the Classic because the track has been slowing down later in the day at Churchill this year. So :47 is a very solid pace. But in a race like this with the best horses in the country, I would expect a solid pace.

[GPK]

Anyone know if the Tarheels won today?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

1:11.01 is a fast pace. The race completely collapsed. The top three were 7th, 12th and 10th at the 6F mark.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

That would give Uncle Mo a 107...

I'd have Blame/Zenyatta 108 - Uncle Mo 105

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That would give Uncle Mo a 107...

I'd have Blame/Zenyatta 108 - Uncle Mo 105

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

That's not really how it works.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

That's not really how it works.

How does it work? Please enlighten me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You could argue Lookin at Lucky consistently runs Beyers in the 102-105 range and Fly Down ran a 105 on his best day. Blame ran a 111 Beyer two races back. So you could certainly make the argument that Blame and Zenyatta ran Beyers in the 110 range today.

By the way, there wasn't exactly a suicide pace in this race. They went the half in :47. It was a solid pace but it wasn't suicidal by any means.

The pace was SUICIDAL...It was totally brutal.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think the time of the race is very misleading because every day at Churchill the track slows down over the course of the day. I don't know if it was like that in past years but I've noticed that consistently this year.

You can't seriously believe this, right?

How do you explain the Chilukki (3rd race, 1:30 PM) vs the Dirt Mile (9th race, 5:30 PM), then? Both were run with an honest but reasonable pace, with horses who attended the pace and closers both hitting the board. The projected spread between the races would be about 15 Beyer points, and it ended up being 1.38 seconds... or 14 Beyer points. By your logic, it should have been ~2.5 seconds or 25-30 points. Not really believable.

Newsflash: Trainers make up a lot of bullsh!t.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

You can't seriously believe this, right?

How do you explain the Chilukki (3rd race, 1:30 PM) vs the Dirt Mile (9th race, 5:30 PM), then? Both were run with an honest but reasonable pace, with horses who attended the pace and closers both hitting the board. The projected spread between the races would be about 15 Beyer points, and it ended up being 1.38 seconds... or 14 Beyer points. By your logic, it should have been ~2.5 seconds or 25-30 points. Not really believable.

Newsflash: Trainers make up a lot of bullsh!t.

With equal fractions, you are probably right. But considering they went the half in :44 4/5 in the dirt mile and they went only went :46 2/5 in the other race, there should have been a much bigger difference in the final time had the track been just as fast later in the day. Do you think the dirt mile would have still gone in 1:35 1/5 if they would have gone the half in :46 2/5? There is no way in hell.