10/8 (KEE): Phoenix S. (G3), Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

philcski · #1 10-06-2010, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

blackthroatedwind · #2 10-06-2010, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

philcski · #3 10-06-2010, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

blackthroatedwind · #4 10-06-2010, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

miraja2 · #5 10-06-2010, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

Well, he may well be right about her being the 5th choice on the board come post time, but it seems to me that this is the sort of race where the 5th choice might be 9/2 while the favorite is 5/2.

All I know for sure here is that I wouldn't want the Catalano.

philcski · #6 10-06-2010, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

I could very well be wrong and she could go off around there, especially if my guess on the McPeek taking a lot of money is wrong. But if you want to analyze it off the ML- if the morning lines are correct on the other horses in the race... she would be 11-1.