10/8 (KEE): Phoenix S. (G3), Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

[Linny]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This race could be Exhibit A in what's wrong with the Graded Stakes system. In the last ten years, only Runway Model and Take Charge Lady won the Alcibiades and went on to become fillies of note.

KEE has been the beneficiary of "grade creep" for years. Remember when the Oak Tree Mile was sending out BC winner/runners-up in droves and the Shadwell Mile got an upgrade?

So few barns run their serious horses before September of their 2yo season (and when they do run it's very infrequent) that we should look at the Euro model of only calling late season destination races G1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Linny

KEE has been the beneficiary of "grade creep" for years. Remember when the Oak Tree Mile was sending out BC winner/runners-up in droves and the Shadwell Mile got an upgrade?

So few barns run their serious horses before September of their 2yo season (and when they do run it's very infrequent) that we should look at the Euro model of only calling late season destination races G1.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this. There are several races at KEE that deserve to be downgraded that haven't been. Alcibiades included.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by philcski

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this. There are several races at KEE that deserve to be downgraded that haven't been. Alcibiades included.

You don't like the 4?

[Dahoss]

I'm probably reaching a lot here, but I'm going to bet a few dollars on Forest Legend in the Alcibiades. Before her win last out, Vicki Oliver was just 2 for 45 with firsters over the last five years and 1 for 18 with 2 year old firsters.

I guess that explains why she went off at those odds last time, because she is really bred well for the grass. That isn't a redboard, I didn't bet her, but her dam could really run and she's a half to recent Ballston Spa runnerup Silver Reunion. I think this one can run a bit.

There is decent amount of speed in here and this race has seen it's fair share of surprise winners, since it's been run on poly. Oliver is 33% in the money going turf to poly at Keeneland and Keeneland is her home track. I'm going to bet her to win and then underneath Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight in exactas.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm probably reaching a lot here, but I'm going to bet a few dollars on Forest Legend in the Alcibiades. Before her win last out, Vicki Oliver was just 2 for 45 with firsters over the last five years and 1 for 18 with 2 year old firsters.

I guess that explains why she went off at those odds last time, because she is really bred well for the grass. That isn't a redboard, I didn't bet her, but her dam could really run and she's a half to recent Ballston Spa runnerup Silver Reunion. I think this one can run a bit.

There is decent amount of speed in here and this race has seen it's fair share of surprise winners, since it's been run on poly. Oliver is 33% in the money going turf to poly at Keeneland and Keeneland is her home track. I'm going to bet her to win and then underneath Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight in exactas.

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

[miraja2]

I was hoping to bet against Wonderlandbynight and Jordy Y because all they did was pick up the pieces (in pretty unimpressive fashion) after the Arlington Lassie completely fell apart in front of them. Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is going to end up being the right spot to bet against them, and Wonderlandbynight isn't awful. At least she has proven she can win routing on synthetic.

I think I'll probably end up skipping this one.

[Gate Dancer]

I'll be using Poof Too as my exacta horse for this race. Interesting comparison between the maiden breaker for Poof Too and the Ontario Debutante that Wonderlandbynight ran in. The maiden race was faster at each call and final time. Breeding suggests no problem for her either on the stretchout. With a little second race improvement, I think she might be in the mix. Rail post is still nice at Keeneland in route races. Price should be appealing as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I like Dos Lunas as well but only at 8-1 or greater.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I like Dos Lunas as well but only at 8-1 or greater.

I'm only betting Goldikova in the BC Mile if she's over 17:1. Maybe 15....but I want 17:1.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm only betting Goldikova in the BC Mile if she's over 17:1. Maybe 15....but I want 17:1.

Yeah I'm that far off.

*canned laughter*