10/8 (KEE): Phoenix S. (G3), Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

philcski · #1 10-05-2010, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm probably reaching a lot here, but I'm going to bet a few dollars on Forest Legend in the Alcibiades. Before her win last out, Vicki Oliver was just 2 for 45 with firsters over the last five years and 1 for 18 with 2 year old firsters.

I guess that explains why she went off at those odds last time, because she is really bred well for the grass. That isn't a redboard, I didn't bet her, but her dam could really run and she's a half to recent Ballston Spa runnerup Silver Reunion. I think this one can run a bit.

There is decent amount of speed in here and this race has seen it's fair share of surprise winners, since it's been run on poly. Oliver is 33% in the money going turf to poly at Keeneland and Keeneland is her home track. I'm going to bet her to win and then underneath Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight in exactas.

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

Dahoss · #2 10-05-2010, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

miraja2 · #3 10-06-2010, 07:32 AM

I was hoping to bet against Wonderlandbynight and Jordy Y because all they did was pick up the pieces (in pretty unimpressive fashion) after the Arlington Lassie completely fell apart in front of them. Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is going to end up being the right spot to bet against them, and Wonderlandbynight isn't awful. At least she has proven she can win routing on synthetic.

I think I'll probably end up skipping this one.

Gate Dancer · #4 10-06-2010, 08:54 AM

I'll be using Poof Too as my exacta horse for this race. Interesting comparison between the maiden breaker for Poof Too and the Ontario Debutante that Wonderlandbynight ran in. The maiden race was faster at each call and final time. Breeding suggests no problem for her either on the stretchout. With a little second race improvement, I think she might be in the mix. Rail post is still nice at Keeneland in route races. Price should be appealing as well.

LARHAGE · #5 10-06-2010, 09:30 AM

I haven't heard of 80% of the horses in any of these races, such is the state of racing today, I won't even watch these races, I have vacuming to do.

ateamstupid · #6 10-06-2010, 09:34 AM

The Phoenix is actually really solid for a G3. Obviously the Alcibiades needs to be downgraded, but a good opening day card put together by Keeneland.

philcski · #7 10-06-2010, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

blackthroatedwind · #8 10-06-2010, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

philcski · #9 10-06-2010, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

blackthroatedwind · #10 10-06-2010, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

miraja2 · #11 10-06-2010, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

Well, he may well be right about her being the 5th choice on the board come post time, but it seems to me that this is the sort of race where the 5th choice might be 9/2 while the favorite is 5/2.

All I know for sure here is that I wouldn't want the Catalano.

philcski · #12 10-06-2010, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

I could very well be wrong and she could go off around there, especially if my guess on the McPeek taking a lot of money is wrong. But if you want to analyze it off the ML- if the morning lines are correct on the other horses in the race... she would be 11-1.

#13 10-06-2010, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I like Dos Lunas as well but only at 8-1 or greater.