Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?
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I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the
current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it
recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some
think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.
07-26-2010, 08:08 PM
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