7/28 (SAR): Lake George S. (G2)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

4-1 on her in that field is a terrible, terrible play.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

4-1 on her in that field is a terrible, terrible play.

4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

18 1/2?? WTF? 3 1/2

She is the only horse who ran a step against the pace in that BC race, only horse who made up any ground, I believe there is a ton of talent here.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

18 1/2?? WTF? 3 1/2.

Granted Tiger. . . I was saying it half tongue-in-cheek.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Granted Tiger. . . I was saying it half tongue-in-cheek.

The stable has not been the same of late bringing horses back, this was the spot they wanted to win. PERFECT PREP.
Let me ask you something, and try to be serious. If she did not return in that Allowance, and was coming into this off the BC run, what would her fair odds be then?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.