I need to listen to ATR more often

cakes44 · #1 06-17-2010, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Rail Trip got a dream trip in a Gr.2 carrying 118lbs, I repeat 118lbs in a GRADE 2. Suddenly he is the Quality Road of the west...some of you guys should think about this, I'm not sure if this was the same mindset I heard for Zardana after she beat Rachel or Unrivaled Belle, but talk about annointing a horse? I give you Rail Trip.

I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

CSC · #2 06-17-2010, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

slotdirt · #3 06-17-2010, 05:41 PM

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

CSC · #4 06-17-2010, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

I'm sure if you were betting, it wouldn't. If you like Rail Trip at 129 and you think he could run as well as when he carried 118, well goodluck to you.

slotdirt · #5 06-17-2010, 05:44 PM

Against the field he faced the other day? I have two fists, the contents of which would be emptied on Rail Trip.

Rupert Pupkin · #6 06-17-2010, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So Rail Trip still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by an additional 2-4 points.

slotdirt · #7 06-17-2010, 05:52 PM

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

Antitrust32 · #8 06-18-2010, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

why would a Euro know anything about pounds?

they deal in kg's and stones

Indian Charlie · #9 06-18-2010, 09:15 AM

Hey Chucky, did you read Savantore's comments on Best Pal at that Paulick Report site?

If not, I'll quote him here for you to answer the Best Pal vs Zenyatta remark.

Though I'm not really that sure you were being serious thinking Zenyatta would beat BP 90 out of 100 times.

Cannon Shell · #10 06-18-2010, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hey Chucky, did you read Savantore's comments on Best Pal at that Paulick Report site?

If not, I'll quote him here for you to answer the Best Pal vs Zenyatta remark.

Though I'm not really that sure you were being serious thinking Zenyatta would beat BP 90 out of 100 times.

Doug was like 8 years old when Best Pal was running. Like i said he was good on about 10 occasions.

NTamm1215 · #11 06-17-2010, 05:53 PM

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Rupert Pupkin · #12 06-17-2010, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

NTamm1215 · #13 06-17-2010, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

Rupert Pupkin · #14 06-17-2010, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

Yes, I read your post. As I said before, I totally disagree with you. If I owned Zenyatta, I would not be wanting to face Rail Trip at Hollywood in a 4 horse field with no pace.

With regard to your other comment, facing females in California is usually not a serious challenge for her although it has been a couple of times.

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?

slotdirt · #15 06-17-2010, 05:56 PM

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

Rupert Pupkin · #16 06-17-2010, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

I think the only chance of Rail Trip and Zenyatta facing each other this year will be in the BC Classic, if they both make it there in one piece.

RockHardTen1985 · #17 06-17-2010, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

NTamm1215 · #18 06-17-2010, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

hockey2315 · #19 06-17-2010, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

By a lot. . .

What I don't get about Davidowitz's position is how exactly he's evaluating Zenyatta as a "physical entity" or whatever he called her without some sort of perspective. Her figs are slow, her competition is weak and serves to downgrade her races, and she's running on a surface that rewards mediocrity and serves to shorten the gaps between runners. He's watching her in that context - not in a vacuum.

CSC · #20 06-17-2010, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So he still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by 2-4 points.

Certain horses hit a threashold with weight, for instance for Zenyatta we know she can run well up to 129, for Rail Trip 129 is a question mark, one that hasn't been answered yet. Until they do it no one can be certain how they will handle it. Regardless some say for every length = 1 lbs, this isn't a concise science, there are some Trainer's that look at weight religiously, as Bobby Frankel once did, we know if he didn't like the weight assignments for a race he would have no qualms scratching a horse. I don't think it's an inconsequencial factor that should just be dismissed nor do I think it's an all determining factor. Every situation is unique, I do believe letting Rail Trip carry 118 in a grade 2 was like handing candy to a child, it couldn't have been any sweeter to Ellis I surmise.