NY - Bel P4 payouts

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There was $20 on the winning combination. Surely you understand that the payoffs become random given the prices of the last two horses...especially, in this case, given the excessive play in the win pool on Roderick that probably came close to doubling the win price of the eventual winner...and thus greatly increasing the parlay.

I'm very aware of the fact that as the number of tickets remaining the more random the payoff is. But my point still stands. Roderick was a silly price in the win pool but the double prices support the fact that it was low. We can argue all night long, but there's no real answer because we can't go back and actually see what percentages runners were bet in the hidden legs. There are inferences possible, like in the doubles and pick 3's, which contradict each other.

I know you trying to toe the line of reason, but if you had this pick 4 today wouldn't you feel like you got shortchanged a couple grand or more? I know I would. It was a very difficult sequence with some very difficult runners to have on the same ticket.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I know you trying to toe the line of reason, but if you had this pick 4 today wouldn't you feel like you got shortchanged a couple grand or more? I know I would. It was a very difficult sequence with some very difficult runners to have on the same ticket.

You're wrong.

I would understand exactly why the payoff was less than the parlay. I don't have the time, or interest, in explaining this further. There are many sides...and all explain why the payoff was, essentially, as it was. You should understand all this stuff implicitly.

Pointing out " It was a very difficult sequence with some very difficult runners to have on the same ticket " is irrelevent...and a given considering there was $20 on the given sequence....less than .016% of the total pool.

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me also add that while a great reason Pick-4s rate to pay better than the parlay is the dispersion of the takeout, another reason is that outlyers, on both ends, are also short the parlay for the expected reasons. Today's result was obviously an outlyer.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add that while a great reason Pick-4s rate to pay better than the parlay is the dispersion of the takeout, another reason is that outlyers, on both ends, are also short the parlay for the expected reasons. Today's result was obviously an outlyer.

Outliers

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Outliers

Can't sleep. Thought I'd help.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Can't sleep. Thought I'd help.

I respect that. Both in fact....not being able to sleep and correcting poor spelling.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're wrong.

I would understand exactly why the payoff was less than the parlay. I don't have the time, or interest, in explaining this further. There are many sides...and all explain why the payoff was, essentially, as it was. You should understand all this stuff implicitly.

Pointing out " It was a very difficult sequence with some very difficult runners to have on the same ticket " is irrelevent...and a given considering there was $20 on the given sequence....less than .016% of the total pool.

Actually, I'm not wrong. I've given you mathematical proof why I think it was much lower than expected, including reasonable adjustments based on the discussion, and it still ends up far lower than the parlay- and all you've presented is conjecture on one leg which may or may not be true, based on your educated guess.

Plenty of tickets have paid the quote-on-quote "correct" amount with 1/10000th of the pool winning, that isn't a viable answer, even though I granted you that it adds volatility to the result.

If you're going to play the "I'm much smarter than you" game which you've been resorting to frequently lately, you should make the time (and interest) to back it up. It's rather unfair to the rest of the people here if you don't.