NY - Bel P4 payouts

[philcski]

Willpays for the 5th:
1 4632 (actual odds 7-2, ML 4-1)
2 4872 (actual odds 14-1, ML 6-1)
3 19021 (actual odds 50-1, ML 20-1)
4 5951 (actual odds 3-1, ML 3-1)
5 3657 (actual odds 2-1, ML 7-2)
6 9491 (actual odds 12-1, ML 15-1)
7 47457 (actual odds 36-1, ML 20-1)
8 15845 (actual odds 6-1, ML 8-1)
9 11864 (actual odds 10-1, ML 6-1)
10 27196 (actual odds 34-1, ML 15-1)

On a rolling basis, the doubles:
Races 2-3 paid 139, parlay 114
Races 3-4 paid 239, parlay 148
Races 4-5 paid 527, parlay 408
- so right in line with what one would expect (and even a bit higher on races 3-4).

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Willpays for the 5th:
1 4632 (actual odds 7-2, ML 4-1)
2 4872 (actual odds 14-1, ML 6-1)
3 19021 (actual odds 50-1, ML 20-1)
4 5951 (actual odds 3-1, ML 3-1)
5 3657 (actual odds 2-1, ML 7-2)
6 9491 (actual odds 12-1, ML 15-1)
7 47457 (actual odds 36-1, ML 20-1)
8 15845 (actual odds 6-1, ML 8-1)
9 11864 (actual odds 10-1, ML 6-1)
10 27196 (actual odds 34-1, ML 15-1)

On a rolling basis, the doubles:
Races 2-3 paid 139, parlay 114
Races 3-4 paid 239, parlay 148
Races 4-5 paid 527, parlay 408
- so right in line with what one would expect (and even a bit higher on races 3-4).

I don't want you to think I ignored this....

The parlay of the the 2nd through the 4th was roughly $1700 ( $1696 but we can round to make it easier ) so using the exact odds you listed here are the parlays versus the payoffs...

1 - $7650 ( payoff was 60% of parlay )

2 - $25,500 ( 19% )

3 - $85K ( 22% )

4 - $ 6800 ( 87% )

5 - $5100 ( 72% )

6 - $22100 ( 43% )

7 - $62,900 ( 75% )

8 - $11,900 ( 133% )

9 - $18,700 ( 63% )

10 - $59,500 ( 46% )

So, only the payoff on the 8 horse was better than the parlay, with all the others some version of relatively to significantly short of the parlay. Here are the amount of dollars on each potentiall winning combo...

1 - $41

2 - $39

3 - $10

4 - $32

5 - $52

6 - $20

7 - $4

8 - $12

9 - $16

10 - $7

It doesn't appear the winner ( #6 ) had a significantly lower payoff relative to the others. The average payoff was 56% of the parlay ( related to the factors I think we agreed on ) so the winning combination was hardly a statistical aberration at 43% of the parlay. The winning dollar amounts on each combination was also so small that it seems fairly easy to see how volitile the payoffs are and thus a small confluence of events will easily lead to the appearance of " low " payouts.

[miraja2]

Is it sad for me that I've been betting horses for quite a few years now, and yet I still didn't understand roughly half of the stuff in this thread?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Is it sad for me that I've been betting horses for quite a few years now, and yet I still didn't understand roughly half of the stuff in this thread?

Nope. Just don't play multi-race wagers.

Or do I guess...if I want to be a d!ck about it.

[randallscott35]

I should really play more of them. I don't like signers is one reason. (Not that I expect to hit tons of them)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Nope. Just don't play multi-race wagers.

I do play Pick-3s and Pick4s on occasion, but they make up a very small percentage of my bets.
However, that's not because I don't understand the payout structure, but rather because given my lack of handicapping success the last two years, I'm lucky if I can find three winners in an entire meet, let alone in consecutive races.

[gales0678]

folks look at the dicatomy of the early p4 from yesterday to today

yesterday as has been stated the early p4 paid $9,491 , the parlay was over $23k

today's early p4 paid $14,466 and the parlay was just about $3900

surley you can see the difference today's p4 paid about 3.7 (370%) x the parlay yesterdays p4 parlay only returned around .41 (41 %)

it also can be argued that today's winning combo was easier to come up with than yesterday's . What can be surmized by this ....there was some very welll hidden $$$ in the pools yesterday , especially the early pick 4 and 3 , sharp $$$$ on some sharp horses took down the payoff in yesterday's pools

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by gales0678

folks look at the dicatomy of the early p4 from yesterday to today

yesterday as has been stated the early p4 paid $9,491 , the parlay was over $23k

today's early p4 paid $14,466 and the parlay was just about $3900

surley you can see the difference today's p4 paid about 3.7 (370%) x the parlay yesterdays p4 parlay only returned around .41 (41 %)

it also can be argued that today's winning combo was easier to come up with than yesterday's . What can be surmized by this ....there was some very welll hidden $$$ in the pools yesterday , especially the early pick 4 and 3 , sharp $$$$ on some sharp horses took down the payoff in yesterday's pools

So sad it was maybe a few hundred bucks Gales..Maybe just one or two guys..You make it like the syndicate was in the know?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by gales0678

folks look at the dicatomy of the early p4 from yesterday to today

yesterday as has been stated the early p4 paid $9,491 , the parlay was over $23k

today's early p4 paid $14,466 and the parlay was just about $3900

surley you can see the difference today's p4 paid about 3.7 (370%) x the parlay yesterdays p4 parlay only returned around .41 (41 %)

it also can be argued that today's winning combo was easier to come up with than yesterday's . What can be surmized by this ....there was some very welll hidden $$$ in the pools yesterday , especially the early pick 4 and 3 , sharp $$$$ on some sharp horses took down the payoff in yesterday's pools

Do you believe that there was a second shooter?