Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I hear you and you may very well be right. I just think that in a race like the derby, especially the way this one set up, that the premature move could have had a huge impact on the way this race was run in the stretch. There is no denying that the winner got the ultimate trip. What if he has to check or hesitate on the turn? Does he still beat NP by 6-7 lengths?

No... only 5 1/2 lengths.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

No... only 5 1/2 lengths.

LOL

I'm giving up my hypothesis. On to Pimlico...and the crackheads.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

LOL

I'm giving up my hypothesis. On to Pimlico...and the crackheads.

LOL

Sorry for being a smartass.

I'm thinking about driving up. Would be the first missed Preakness since 1996 for me if I don't. Are you going?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

LOL

Sorry for being a smartass.

I'm thinking about driving up. Would be the first missed Preakness since 1996 for me if I don't. Are you going?

strongly considering. Probably 60-40 to go. Let me know if you decide to go.

Those pick 4's, none of which i hit, were quite hittable and quite large. Always depressing after the fact.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

strongly considering. Probably 60-40 to go. Let me know if you decide to go.

Those pick 4's, none of which i hit, were quite hittable and quite large. Always depressing after the fact.

Agreed. I bet one race all day, despite being at CD from the 8th on- it was a very hectic and not very enjoyable for most of the day. Don't know if I would have come up with General Quarters in the pick 4 though, even if I went thin in the Derby.

Trying to talk the wife into it. We will let you know.

[ateamstupid]

Approximate internal fractions, FWIW:

Super Saver: 23.53, 47.31, 1:11.64, 1:37.90, 2:04.45 (:26.55 last 1/4)
Noble's Promise: 23.57, 47.06, 1:11.15, 1:37.65, 2:05.43 (:27.78 last 1/4)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Approximate internal fractions, FWIW:

Super Saver: 23.53, 47.31, 1:11.64, 1:37.90, 2:04.45 (:26.55 last 1/4)
Noble's Promise: 23.57, 47.06, 1:11.15, 1:37.65, 2:05.43 (:27.78 last 1/4)

Time doesn't MATTER unless you're in JAIL.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Time doesn't MATTER unless you're in JAIL.

Putting the Derby aside for a second, this is what I don't get about the dude's analysis. He talks about how so and so made "this run" and "that move" but if you completely ignore fractions, how the hell do you know if a horse was really accelerating or if the others were slowing down? For instance, sometimes in races (especially routes), a horse or two will separate from the field early, then three or four horses will catch up quickly down the backstretch. This doesn't make sense visually until you see that the fractions were something like :23 and :49. If horses get closer during a slow quarter after being far behind during a fast one, that doesn't mean they were making an early move, nor should they be given extra credit if they win with "another" move.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Putting the Derby aside for a second, this is what I don't get about the dude's analysis. He talks about how so and so made "this run" and "that move" but if you completely ignore fractions, how the hell do you know if a horse was really accelerating or if the others were slowing down? For instance, sometimes in races (especially routes), a horse or two will separate from the field early, then three or four horses will catch up quickly down the backstretch. This doesn't make sense visually until you see that the fractions were something like :23 and :49. If horses get closer during a slow quarter after being far behind during a fast one, that doesn't mean they were making an early move, nor should they be given extra credit if they win with "another" move.

Super Saver :23.58 :23.96 :24.15 :26.22 :26.55 Borel C H 8.00
Ice Box :26.35 :23.94 :24.03 :24.45 :26.10 Lezcano J 11.70
Paddy O'Prado :24.40 :23.84 :24.10 :25.69 :26.89 Desormeaux K J 12.30
Make Music for Me :26.86 :24.11 :23.69 :24.01 :26.59 Rosario J 30.00
Noble's Promise :23.62 :23.50 :24.06 :26.47 :27.82 Martinez W 24.90¨
Lookin At Lucky :25.84 :24.11 :24.11 :24.62 :26.95 Gomez G K 6.30
Dublin :24.74 :24.36 :23.74 :25.29 :27.60 Thompson T J 20.00
Stately Victor :25.42 :23.85 :24.08 :24.89 :27.69 Garcia Alan 20.20
Mission Impazible :23.24 :24.31 :24.34 :26.44 :27.95 Maragh R 16.70
Devil May Care :24.13 :23.77 :24.17 :25.86 :28.57 Velazquez J R 10.90
American Lion :23.60 :24.13 :24.35 :26.08 :29.48 Flores D R 23.20
Jackson Bend :23.87 :24.19 :24.52 :25.56 :29.54 Smith M E 23.00
Discreetly Mine :23.23 :24.06 :24.42 :26.34 :30.74 Castellano J J 31.60
Dean's Kitten :24.82 :23.84 :24.35 :26.27 :30.06 Albarado R J 25.70
Conveyance :22.63 :23.53 :24.42 :27.43 :33.80 Garcia M 27.00
Homeboykris :24.30 :24.47 :24.71 :27.60 :32.52 Dominguez R A 27.00
Sidney's Candy :22.80 :23.62 :24.34 :27.84 :35.09 Talamo J 9.50
Line of David :23.14 :23.96 :24.62 :28.67 :34.35 Bejarano R 19.90
Awesome Act :25.16 :24.02 :24.20 :26.32 :35.07 Leparoux J R 11.60
Backtalk :24.31 :24.43 :24.62 :27.44 :35.58 Mena M 23.10

Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race".