Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?