DERBY NEWS (4/25): Eskendereya out; Lookin at Lucky new fave..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Were you really that impressed with her Bonnie Miss that you thought Derby at that point?

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

i guess im in the minority, but i dont see how she has been as impressive as just about any colt. shes won once going two turns, against amen hallelujah, who looked like she has some distance concerns after the bonnie miss. amen hallelujah is a nice filly, but a mile seems like her ceiling.

shes a very nice filly and i dont think shes going to be last at all. she will probably be among the top ten finishers. but her performances on track thus far have not been that impressive to consider her a legit threat.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

i guess im in the minority, but i dont see how she has been as impressive as just about any colt. shes won once going two turns, against amen hallelujah, who looked like she has some distance concerns after the bonnie miss. amen hallelujah is a nice filly, but a mile seems like her ceiling.

shes a very nice filly and i dont think shes going to be last at all. she will probably be among the top ten finishers. but her performances on track thus far have not been that impressive to consider her a legit threat.

i think you could say that about any probable starter at this point.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think you could say that about any probable starter at this point.

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

Don't forget that she ran as fast as Icebox did in the Fla. Derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Don't forget that she ran as fast as Icebox did in the Fla. Derby.

that's true as well.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

i don't feel comfortable at this point saying any horse has a better chance than any other. and i do feel at this point that just about any horse can win. and when i say i don't include stately victor as one of those, i think back to last year. as for lack of racing, ice box is one i like-and he hasn't run in the same span as devil may care.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

I definitely toss the BC out because of the Poly; I have no idea what happened at the FG. I didn't realize she had gate issues - that just seemed like a bad race for her. Look, if they run her, I'm going to root for her ( or Ice Box); I hope I'm proven wrong. At least she's coming into her next race in good form because her last workout seems like it was perfect.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I definitely toss the BC out because of the Poly; I have no idea what happened at the FG. I didn't realize she had gate issues - that just seemed like a bad race for her. Look, if they run her, I'm going to root for her ( or Ice Box); I hope I'm proven wrong. At least she's coming into her next race in good form because her last workout seems like it was perfect.

she was very fractious as the gate, and the crew then used tongs on her-which seemed to put her in quite a mental state. she used up a lot of energy before running that day, i can see why she tired.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she was very fractious as the gate, and the crew then used tongs on her-which seemed to put her in quite a mental state. she used up a lot of energy before running that day, i can see why she tired.

Wow, I did not know that - well, that explains a lot. I was shocked when I saw her run so poorly given how talented she had shown she was.

If she goes to the Derby, let's hope she doesn't act up again like that.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she was very fractious as the gate, and the crew then used tongs on her-which seemed to put her in quite a mental state. she used up a lot of energy before running that day, i can see why she tired.

LOL I'm sorry, but I just saw your avatar - I love it!