Keeneland Spring notes

[chucklestheclown]

All these views and no replies...so thanks philcski.

[pweizer]

This is very good stuff. I thank you as well.

Paul

[philcski]

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

[chucklestheclown]

Do not worry...I saw today...except for the Wiley which got lost when I went to record NBC.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

I appreciate your efforts very much.

Paul

[philcski]

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

[philcski]

Day 5 4/9/10: Several multiple length winners on the day, which goes against the standard on poly where most races have less than a length finishes. I do think speed was good, but several of the runners that got away were just much the best which puts the opinion in question. Performance of the day goes to RAHYSTRADA, who took up exiting the turn, lacked room on the rerally, finally got clear behind the pace horses in a merry go round race and ran by them standing still. He won a G3 at 40-1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a huge run at big odds on Derby Day in the Woodford Reserve if they decide to go that route.

Like Thursday, not a whole lot of passing went on, so upgrade SHE'LL HEIR (who blew up the tote at $44 despite about as precocious breeding as you can find), KAREN ANN (wide throughout and green), INDIAN LADY (lost all chance at start), and CLOCKWORK ANGEL (who ran a remarkably good race despite being dismissed at 53/1 with form that fit with the group.)
Downgrade MARIA DARLIN (who packed it in despite a perfect trip), DERBY LANE'S SONG (who probably just isn't very good), LEAVENWORTH, COGNITO, and BIMINI (who inherited 2nd after the previous two just quit).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

OK, I disagree completely. I wouldn't bet those horses back in similar conditions under any circumstances. Four Paws could not have had it any easier based on the bias setting easy fractions in the middle of the track, and while Cat Hop moved somewhat early from 3rd if you drop a horse like they did Rose Medallion on a speed biased track under no reasoning should you let that horse rerally AFTER she's already been in a drive, let alone let a Magical Prize type get by, especially considering that on paper they were the two to beat.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

[philcski]

Day 12 4/18/10: Clear and cool; track played fair all day.

Pretty destructive pace battle in the 1st, would give AMAZING SAINT a second look, especially around 1 turn at CD, after putting away two challengers before giving it up late.

I don't necessarily prescribe to the bounce theory but I do believe when a horse gets everything his own way and runs a vastly improved race it's unlikely to repeat that, and is worth a stand against at a short price- and TURALLURE proved that true again in the 5th. That being said, he broke in air and probably deserves a second chance.

EARSTOYOU was ultra impressive off the layoff, but so was USHUAIA, who dueled 4/5 favorite CAUY'S HUMOR into submission. MISSY LOU clunked up for 3rd and the running line is better than the actual performance.

In the finale, upgrade SOUL OF NATAKA for Attfield (probably headed to Woodbine) who was the only horse to make up ground in a very paced race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

This was a clear cut against-the-grainer based on the charts.