Keeneland Spring notes

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

OK, I disagree completely. I wouldn't bet those horses back in similar conditions under any circumstances. Four Paws could not have had it any easier based on the bias setting easy fractions in the middle of the track, and while Cat Hop moved somewhat early from 3rd if you drop a horse like they did Rose Medallion on a speed biased track under no reasoning should you let that horse rerally AFTER she's already been in a drive, let alone let a Magical Prize type get by, especially considering that on paper they were the two to beat.

[philcski]

Day 6 4/10/10: Clear and warm for Blue Grass Stakes Day. No apparent pace or path biases.
Impressive debut from MUFFIN TOP, who went off favored against a moderate group and handled being pinned down on the inside and a stretch battle well only to lose a tough photo. I don't think much of anyone else in the race, though.
Downgrade WANDAFUL WANDAFUL, who got a pretty good trip sitting just behind the threesome dueling for the lead and showed very little resistance when EMPIRE SPRING went right by (got a perfect setup and ride by Gomez but was still a good win.)
FORDANGSHORE had to use a lot of energy early after missing the break but that was an ultimate hang job at 2/5. Credit FIVE STAR DAVID for battling back but I don't think I want anyone out of this race going forward, especially if FORDANGSHORE is a short price again.
Extremely impressive debut from DISCO TROOP who just crushed these, and no excuse for GALIENTOS who had everything his way. Big trip for HOOLIHAN who broke very slow then rushed up and couldn't sustain, would definitely bet this one back.
Probably the worst group of G2 older sprinters I've ever seen in the Commonwealth. In no circumstance would I bet any of these in a graded stake ever again.
Tough to really endorse anyone in the Blue Grass, either. Every horse in the race got the trip they needed except perhaps PADDY O' PRADO, who got a bit of pressure early from Odysseus before that one ultimately stopped and was injured. STATELY VICTOR obviously relished the poly and the only one that did any running at the end, but when INTERACTIF is your favorite, gets a perfect trip, and finishes 4th, what does that say? I'm going to say not a whole lot for anybody else. All are more likely to finish 20th than 1st in the Derby.

[philcski]

Day 7 4/11/10: Stalkers/closers had a good day, but those close to the pace who tucked in did OK. Those running directly into the wind with no cover seemed to struggle.

Strong performance from DIAMOND SONG, who did all the heavy lifting and fought off multiple challengers before finally giving it up late in the lane.

Upgrade HAWAIIAN SKY, who was wide the whole way and moved a bit too early. Would win with the same move at CD. Downgrade FLAT CHANCE who basically sucked up for 2nd with no real excuse against a moderate group.

Remarkable race from EXCITABLE BOY, who was the only pace horse around at the end and was bothered multiple times in the stretch yet still managed to rerally and finish 3rd. Downgrade the top two who got an ideal pace setup given the bias and the hot pace.

Upgrade FLASHY'S SONG, who fought off 3 challenges before succumbing late in the lane while 5 clear of 3rd. Winner DUOMO had an ideal trip and would need to improve to win at N1X. Lot of bumping between Genisa and Lookn Even Finer, but both just looked very tired.

HERE COMES BEN's performance looks a lot better on paper than it really was; very pedestrian fractions and was gifted the lead after breaking 4th because the other riders took back. Upgrade CALIMONCO who rallied wide late despite the slow fractions.