Keeneland Spring notes

[philcski]

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

[chucklestheclown]

Do not worry...I saw today...except for the Wiley which got lost when I went to record NBC.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

I appreciate your efforts very much.

Paul

[philcski]

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

[philcski]

Day 5 4/9/10: Several multiple length winners on the day, which goes against the standard on poly where most races have less than a length finishes. I do think speed was good, but several of the runners that got away were just much the best which puts the opinion in question. Performance of the day goes to RAHYSTRADA, who took up exiting the turn, lacked room on the rerally, finally got clear behind the pace horses in a merry go round race and ran by them standing still. He won a G3 at 40-1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a huge run at big odds on Derby Day in the Woodford Reserve if they decide to go that route.

Like Thursday, not a whole lot of passing went on, so upgrade SHE'LL HEIR (who blew up the tote at $44 despite about as precocious breeding as you can find), KAREN ANN (wide throughout and green), INDIAN LADY (lost all chance at start), and CLOCKWORK ANGEL (who ran a remarkably good race despite being dismissed at 53/1 with form that fit with the group.)
Downgrade MARIA DARLIN (who packed it in despite a perfect trip), DERBY LANE'S SONG (who probably just isn't very good), LEAVENWORTH, COGNITO, and BIMINI (who inherited 2nd after the previous two just quit).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

OK, I disagree completely. I wouldn't bet those horses back in similar conditions under any circumstances. Four Paws could not have had it any easier based on the bias setting easy fractions in the middle of the track, and while Cat Hop moved somewhat early from 3rd if you drop a horse like they did Rose Medallion on a speed biased track under no reasoning should you let that horse rerally AFTER she's already been in a drive, let alone let a Magical Prize type get by, especially considering that on paper they were the two to beat.

[philcski]

Day 6 4/10/10: Clear and warm for Blue Grass Stakes Day. No apparent pace or path biases.
Impressive debut from MUFFIN TOP, who went off favored against a moderate group and handled being pinned down on the inside and a stretch battle well only to lose a tough photo. I don't think much of anyone else in the race, though.
Downgrade WANDAFUL WANDAFUL, who got a pretty good trip sitting just behind the threesome dueling for the lead and showed very little resistance when EMPIRE SPRING went right by (got a perfect setup and ride by Gomez but was still a good win.)
FORDANGSHORE had to use a lot of energy early after missing the break but that was an ultimate hang job at 2/5. Credit FIVE STAR DAVID for battling back but I don't think I want anyone out of this race going forward, especially if FORDANGSHORE is a short price again.
Extremely impressive debut from DISCO TROOP who just crushed these, and no excuse for GALIENTOS who had everything his way. Big trip for HOOLIHAN who broke very slow then rushed up and couldn't sustain, would definitely bet this one back.
Probably the worst group of G2 older sprinters I've ever seen in the Commonwealth. In no circumstance would I bet any of these in a graded stake ever again.
Tough to really endorse anyone in the Blue Grass, either. Every horse in the race got the trip they needed except perhaps PADDY O' PRADO, who got a bit of pressure early from Odysseus before that one ultimately stopped and was injured. STATELY VICTOR obviously relished the poly and the only one that did any running at the end, but when INTERACTIF is your favorite, gets a perfect trip, and finishes 4th, what does that say? I'm going to say not a whole lot for anybody else. All are more likely to finish 20th than 1st in the Derby.

[philcski]

Day 7 4/11/10: Stalkers/closers had a good day, but those close to the pace who tucked in did OK. Those running directly into the wind with no cover seemed to struggle.

Strong performance from DIAMOND SONG, who did all the heavy lifting and fought off multiple challengers before finally giving it up late in the lane.

Upgrade HAWAIIAN SKY, who was wide the whole way and moved a bit too early. Would win with the same move at CD. Downgrade FLAT CHANCE who basically sucked up for 2nd with no real excuse against a moderate group.

Remarkable race from EXCITABLE BOY, who was the only pace horse around at the end and was bothered multiple times in the stretch yet still managed to rerally and finish 3rd. Downgrade the top two who got an ideal pace setup given the bias and the hot pace.

Upgrade FLASHY'S SONG, who fought off 3 challenges before succumbing late in the lane while 5 clear of 3rd. Winner DUOMO had an ideal trip and would need to improve to win at N1X. Lot of bumping between Genisa and Lookn Even Finer, but both just looked very tired.

HERE COMES BEN's performance looks a lot better on paper than it really was; very pedestrian fractions and was gifted the lead after breaking 4th because the other riders took back. Upgrade CALIMONCO who rallied wide late despite the slow fractions.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

[philcski]

Day 12 4/18/10: Clear and cool; track played fair all day.

Pretty destructive pace battle in the 1st, would give AMAZING SAINT a second look, especially around 1 turn at CD, after putting away two challengers before giving it up late.

I don't necessarily prescribe to the bounce theory but I do believe when a horse gets everything his own way and runs a vastly improved race it's unlikely to repeat that, and is worth a stand against at a short price- and TURALLURE proved that true again in the 5th. That being said, he broke in air and probably deserves a second chance.

EARSTOYOU was ultra impressive off the layoff, but so was USHUAIA, who dueled 4/5 favorite CAUY'S HUMOR into submission. MISSY LOU clunked up for 3rd and the running line is better than the actual performance.

In the finale, upgrade SOUL OF NATAKA for Attfield (probably headed to Woodbine) who was the only horse to make up ground in a very paced race.

[chucklestheclown]

So, after 3 years, does Keeneland mean anything at Churchill?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

This was a clear cut against-the-grainer based on the charts.

[philcski]

Day 13 4/21/10: Track played fair all day. No path or pace biases apparent.
ROBYN'S DREAM broke in air and rushed up to sit a good spot but the damage was done and the jockey didn't appear to persevere in the lane. Would draw a line through the performance.
CAJUN PRIZE got away with the most ridiculous fractions at the entire meet; 1:17 for 6 furlongs is trotter speed. Discount PROVE YOURSELF, who didn't even figure after being close to the front. Upgrade PROMISEI'LLBEHOME who was the only one who really did any running besides the winner. Bad race overall.
MUD CREEK got absolutely destroyed at the start, and never settled into stride after that. would draw a line through the performance. Upgrade FLASHY DREAM who made a nice midrace move before flattening out.
Very strong performance from MAID OF FLOWERS who went way too fast for this level and held well for 2nd. Should win next out at a similar level.
Roger Attfield continued his remarkable meet with a great performance from ERNFOLD, who was on her wrong lead half the stretch and still destroyed a decent field. Stakes contender in the future.
Awful race in the 7th where both the favorites were pulled up; would draw a line through the race and question the performance for everyone.

[philcski]

Day 14 4/22/10 Speed mildly good but not a conveyor belt. No compelling reason to upgrade or downgrade.
In race 1 the two firsters destroyed the field- in MCL races when this happens I like to mark against the remaining bunch because it means they're going to struggle to win anywhere outside of MNR or Ohio. Those were WAR SKY, LARRY APPEL, KARMA DISTRACTION, OLDBLINDNEDD.
Odd betting in the 2nd, as 5 of the 6 had run at the meet, 4 of those 5 well enough, yet the Tampa shipper goes off favored (and runs last). ALBERTA'S BOOK gets a fair track this time around and rolls to a $13.20 victory. Good performance from the 2nd and 3rd runners who dueled the entire way around FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR and DANCING LYDIA.
Very slow and poor race in the 3rd. Downgrade all the runners beside the winner- LOOSELY, DARKEST HOUR, GERWINII, MEANDER, and DEWBERRY HILL.

Nothing interesting on the rest of the card, except LADY SHAKESPEARE is a very strong candidate to win the F&M Turf if she can continue on her current trajectory. That was an extremely good performance against a rival who had everything her way.