Believable ROI and Win %

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Some guy from California who has done seminars with none other than Aaron Hesz.

He claims a prominent California breeder asked him to take over his ranch and breed his horses but he declined.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

With all these races being taken off the turf (BEL and just about everywhere else on the eastern part) I've been reading (on that other forum) about some extraordinary claims concerning ROI and Win %.

What would be a believable win % for win bets?

What would be a believable win % for exotics bets?

What would be a believable ROI for win bets?

What would be a believable ROI for exotic bets?

What would be a believable ROI for all bets?

Looking more for empirically grounded responses.

Just using my current stats as a reference..

My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI

My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI

My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.

[Bobby Fischer]

if you are hitting 35% of win bets with a high ROI you are good enough to be questioned (or are really lying) , and at the same time you are saying that you don't understand the parimutuel system.

the goal in a parimutuel market is to pick low priced losers. Then you search all the available pools and find the highest percentage play that returns your minimum value demand. If your bankroll is $1000, you might bet about $20-40 on the play.
Usually your are limited to WPS and DB Ex. If you are willing to gamble risk of ruin for higher payout you can use the multi race wagers.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just using my current stats as a reference..

My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI

My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI

My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.

Did you keep track of how often 1 of your top 3 choices won, if you can hit at about 75% amongst top 3 and fit them into a dutching odds grid you can bang out a nice profit

[MISTERGEE]

i should add you are obviously doing very well with your top pick only already

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just using my current stats as a reference..

My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI

My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI

My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.

Excellent ROI for your exacta boxes. (I'm assuming you're counting the box as 2 bets.)

Your lowish ROI for win bets, given your fine hit rate, is probably due to being constrained to provide a daily best bet opinion at this particular venue. I have no doubt that if you were providing a daily best bet (or bets) covering a number of tracks, allowing you to better pick your spots, your ROI would probably be around $2.40 or so. I haven't played PID much at all, as I'd said I would. I get the sense, however, that it's every bit as difficult, if not more so given the quality of horses, than WO. And, GG, HOL, SA, and TP, are ****in snacks compared to WO.

[XIIPointStables]

Does this have anything to do with Youbet now showing users their ROI and % on almost any bet they've made?

For example, apparently I've placed one (must have been drunk) wager on jockey Chad Murphy for an ROI of 1145%.

And 8 bets on Patrick Husbands for an ROI of -100%.

WOW...Ramon Dominguez 28 bets, -100%. Ramon and I are 0-28 on Youbet the last 11 months!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Excellent ROI for your exacta boxes. (I'm assuming you're counting the box as 2 bets.)

Your lowish ROI for win bets, given your fine hit rate, is probably due to being constrained to provide a daily best bet opinion at this particular venue. I have no doubt that if you were providing a daily best bet (or bets) covering a number of tracks, allowing you to better pick your spots, your ROI would probably be around $2.40 or so. I haven't played PID much at all, as I'd said I would. I get the sense, however, that it's every bit as difficult, if not more so given the quality of horses, than WO. And, GG, HOL, SA, and TP, are ****in snacks compared to WO.

The quality of horses has been dreadful there this year. Some horse in the 1st today was 12-1 ML, was 100-1 in his first two starts, showed nothing, and opened at 4/5. Closed at 7/2 and won after looking hopelessly beaten on the turn.

What's hilarious to me is Doug's ROI, writing for the Erie Times-News, is so much better than the biggest racing coverage newspaper in the country's daily 5 handicappers (who all average worse than the takeout on their BEST meets, and play into an infinitely larger pool.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

What's hilarious to me is Doug's ROI, writing for the Erie Times-News, is so much better than the biggest racing coverage newspaper in the country's daily 5 handicappers (who all average worse than the takeout on their BEST meets, and play into an infinitely larger pool.)

Well, I'm a better handicapper than those guys. I think even those guys would agree if they got to know me.

But there have been some conditions at this meet so far that have been highly favorable to me.

In Week #2, 18 of the 32 races were won in wire-to-wire fashion. In week #3, 20 of the 32 races were won by either post 1 or post 2 .. and a good deal of the 12 horses who didn't win while starting from down inside got to the gold rail.

So, you've had a real constant bias in play.. and it wasn't until the very end of 3rd week that the riders started to pick up on it and ride more aggressively.

That's been a bigtime help.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well, I'm a better handicapper than those guys. I think even those guys would agree if they got to know me.

But there have been some conditions at this meet so far that have been highly favorable to me.

In Week #2, 18 of the 32 races were won in wire-to-wire fashion. In week #3, 20 of the 32 races were won by either post 1 or post 2 .. and a good deal of the 12 horses who didn't win while starting from down inside got to the gold rail.

So, you've had a real constant bias in play.. and it wasn't until the very end of 3rd week that the riders started to pick up on it and ride more aggressively.

That's been a bigtime help.

I have no doubt you are a better handicapper than them. You actually take time in your selections instead of automatically deferring to the ML favorite. Analyzing biases and trends are a significant part of handicapping, regardless of whether that's been beneficial to your ROI in the current short run. My point was more that your opinion has to be even more right because of the size of the pools- a $1000 bet actually changes the odds at PID.

Did you see the 1st race today that I was referring to?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Excellent ROI for your exacta boxes. (I'm assuming you're counting the box as 2 bets.)

Your lowish ROI for win bets, given your fine hit rate, is probably due to being constrained to provide a daily best bet opinion at this particular venue. I have no doubt that if you were providing a daily best bet (or bets) covering a number of tracks, allowing you to better pick your spots, your ROI would probably be around $2.40 or so.

Yes - the box is counted as two bets.

I've had a $283 one that was 2nd pick over top pick and a $156.40 top pick over 2nd pick that have helped to inflate the ROI for that stat.

The high win rate has a lot to do with picking winners. My largest win mutual through the first 19 racing days is only $17.40 .. but I've had 11 winners pay between $10 and $17.40

A lot of my clever - more esoteric type longshots I've put 2nd .. and that has really helped the top 2 in an exacta box stat.

My best bet of the day is now 10-for-19 (52.6%) with a $2.66 ROI after today. I've hit with my last six in a row. They've paid $11.00, $3.60, $3.20, $6.20, $3.40, and $4.20

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My best bet of the day is now 10-for-19 (52.6%) with a $2.66 ROI after today. I've hit with my last six in a row. They've paid $11.00, $3.60, $3.20, $6.20, $3.40, and $4.20

If you were fishing, you'd have to throw 5 of those back. Set some new benchmarks for public handicappers: start by championing a 5:2 odds minimum for win bets.

[philcski]

Speaking of hard-to-believe percentage and ROI's, Calvin Borel's in the month of May was an almost unfathomable $3.47. Even if you remove the Derby from the equation and the $102 payoff, he still was $2.66.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Borel actually had 6 consecutive profitable years riding two-turn dirt races at Churcill Downs from '95 to '00.

Over that span he was a combined 127-for-620 (20.5%) $2.64 ROI


However, he's just been out of this world in those two-turn dirt routes at Churchill since 2006.

2006: 23-for-67 (34%) $7.22 ROI

2007: 15-for-70 (21%) $3.73 ROI

2008: 17-for-69 (24%) $2.22 ROI

2009: 10-for-21 (48%) $9.80 ROI

Combined: 65-for-227 (29% wins) $4.86 ROI

Combined record of graded stakes over span: 11-for-20 (55% wins) $22.64 ROI