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-   -   Believable ROI and Win % (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30087)

the_fat_man 06-05-2009 01:27 PM
Believable ROI and Win %
 
With all these races being taken off the turf (BEL and just about everywhere else on the eastern part) I've been reading (on that other forum) about some extraordinary claims concerning ROI and Win %.

What would be a believable win % for win bets?

What would be a believable win % for exotics bets?

What would be a believable ROI for win bets?

What would be a believable ROI for exotic bets?

What would be a believable ROI for all bets?

Looking more for empirically grounded responses.

gales0678 06-05-2009 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
With all these races being taken off the turf (BEL and just about everywhere else on the eastern part) I've been reading (on that other forum) about some extraordinary claims concerning ROI and Win %.

What would be a believable win % for win bets? 15-20 %

What would be a believable win % for exotics bets? 7 - 10 %

What would be a believable ROI for win bets? $5.50

What would be a believable ROI for exotic bets? $8.00

What would be a believable ROI for all bets? $6.50

Looking more for empirically grounded responses.

take a look fat , let me know what you think - the exotics i based on ex's only

Coach Pants 06-05-2009 01:42 PM
What is this a quiz?

Professor Obessio in the hiz-ouse.

My answer is you can't believe 99% of the posts on Face Disadvantage.

Antitrust32 06-05-2009 01:48 PM
I dont really believe anyone who say they make money gambling on horses.

gales0678 06-05-2009 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I dont really believe anyone who say they make money gambling on horses.

lori i think he may just be talking about today or the last few days

so it's very possible that there are some + roi's out there

the_fat_man 06-05-2009 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gales0678
lori i think he may just be talking about today or the last few days

so it's very possible that there are some + roi's out there
No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

gales0678 06-05-2009 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

what is the user name?

hockey2315 06-05-2009 02:01 PM
15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.

the_fat_man 06-05-2009 02:07 PM
I think that 15-20% (and up) ROI on wins bets in more believable than a
35% win rate.

hockey2315 06-05-2009 02:09 PM
It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.

the_fat_man 06-05-2009 02:11 PM
But that's exactly the point. 35% winners AND a high ROI just don't quite go hand in hand. With the low prices you have to be consistently better than 1 out of 3. There's a very small margin for error.

Antitrust32 06-05-2009 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.

I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI.


I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI.


But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones.

I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.

gales0678 06-05-2009 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
But that's exactly the point. 35% winners AND a high ROI just don't quite go hand in hand. With the low prices you have to be consistently better than 1 out of 3. There's a very small margin for error.

is the culprit giving out a high roi and high win % ???

or is it a low win % but high roi %? this could be possible if he is connected to a barn or a clocker for 1st'ers that win with bad works in the form

hockey2315 06-05-2009 02:14 PM
I agree that if someone had a high ROI their win % would be much lower than 35%.

Antitrust32 06-05-2009 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.


Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.

gales0678 06-05-2009 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI.


I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI.


But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones.

I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.
some of the .1% in the country with positive roi's are right here Lori !

hockey2315 06-05-2009 02:17 PM
Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.

Antitrust32 06-05-2009 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

I highly doubt someone could win 315 out of 900 races (35%), unless they were betting strickly favorites. But the ROI would be in the negative.


I believe you are correct on calling bullshit on whoever this poster is. Maybe he doesnt count any losing tickets when computing an ROI ;)

Thunder Gulch 06-05-2009 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.
Yes, but every statistical study I've ever seen had favorites winning around that 33% clip, but also beating the take by losing only +/- 10%. In fact, for win betting, the % loss grows greater at every increasing odds tick, meaning by betting longshots you have to be even better when compared to the total pool of wagers.

Antitrust32 06-05-2009 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.

maybe if you had a bankroll of a million dollars. but even with a $1,000,000 bankroll I bet even the most brilliant of handicappers would make 100k tops.


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