Believable ROI and Win %

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only?

Or is multi-race bets the only way?

This is a multi-race forum. Here, it's all about playing exotics.

Personally, I think investing a (relatively) significant amount of money to get back 6-10:1 (or less, as is usually the case) is not the way to go. I believe that it's easier to make money betting to win. And, additionally, it's a bit harder to win betting limited number (2 plays max) exotics (exactas and doubles).

But the real problem, assuming one has the skill, is actually believing you can do it. Let's say, for example, that I have a 25% hit rate with a 25% ROI over 60 win bets. At what point do I start believing that I can do this consistently? Over how many races do I need to show similar numbers? 100, 500, 1000? And, additionally, how am I showing this return: are my prices consistent or do I have a number of huge longshots? Do I count on 5 'scores' over the year to make my money, like the exotic player, or do I have consistent returns? It's a mind game thing.