Believable ROI and Win %

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This was probably more the case 20 or 30 years ago than it is today. With access to all the tracks presently operating, one need no longer be limited and could play to their strength(s). It's not about taking what your local track gives you and make the best of it any longer.

That does makes sense... go through the different tracks and make one or two bets that you feel very comfortable with. Would take a ton of skill and discipline. But I'm willing to lower my percentage to 99% of horseplayers lose $ instead of 99.9%.

Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only?

Or is multi-race bets the only way?

[MISTERGEE]

most people ive ever known to win over a length of time

1-bet exotics

2- bet extremely heavy, using many combos

3- work on a very small roi, and also depend on their rebates

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only?

Or is multi-race bets the only way?

This is a multi-race forum. Here, it's all about playing exotics.

Personally, I think investing a (relatively) significant amount of money to get back 6-10:1 (or less, as is usually the case) is not the way to go. I believe that it's easier to make money betting to win. And, additionally, it's a bit harder to win betting limited number (2 plays max) exotics (exactas and doubles).

But the real problem, assuming one has the skill, is actually believing you can do it. Let's say, for example, that I have a 25% hit rate with a 25% ROI over 60 win bets. At what point do I start believing that I can do this consistently? Over how many races do I need to show similar numbers? 100, 500, 1000? And, additionally, how am I showing this return: are my prices consistent or do I have a number of huge longshots? Do I count on 5 'scores' over the year to make my money, like the exotic player, or do I have consistent returns? It's a mind game thing.