Believable ROI and Win %

Antitrust32 · #1 06-05-2009, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.

I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI.

I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI.

But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones.

I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.

gales0678 · #2 06-05-2009, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI.

I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI.

But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones.

I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.

some of the .1% in the country with positive roi's are right here Lori !

hockey2315 · #3 06-05-2009, 02:17 PM

Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.

Antitrust32 · #4 06-05-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.

maybe if you had a bankroll of a million dollars. but even with a $1,000,000 bankroll I bet even the most brilliant of handicappers would make 100k tops.

gales0678 · #5 06-05-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.

what if the guy hit say MTB in the derby , wouldn't that push his ROI % or if he scored with a 1ster at toga that paid $80 , then went cold for a while and then went on a chalk fest run to boost his win % but not pumping up the roi as much???

Antitrust32 · #6 06-05-2009, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

some of the .1% in the country with positive roi's are right here Lori !

LOL gales. I've got a nice bridge to sell you also!

gales0678 · #7 06-05-2009, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

LOL gales. I've got a nice bridge to sell you also!

kaspet
blackthoratwind
dahoss
rootdog
bigmc
rudeboyelvis
hovvesupsideyourhead
gpk - maybe not this year
scav - ok he's in the 99.9% but at least he has fun

#8 06-05-2009, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

kaspet
blackthoratwind
dahoss
rootdog
bigmc
rudeboyelvis
hovvesupsideyourhead
gpk - maybe not this year
scav - ok he's in the 99.9% but at least he has fun

I'm familiar with a few of those. No idea who the other 4 are.

gales0678 · #9 06-05-2009, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'm familiar with a few of those. No idea who the other 4 are.

coach i take runnerup to Kasept in spelling , but , i am good with numbers ,you know 2+2=5

Antitrust32 · #10 06-05-2009, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

kaspet
blackthoratwind
dahoss
rootdog
bigmc
rudeboyelvis
hovvesupsideyourhead
gpk - maybe not this year
scav - ok he's in the 99.9% but at least he has fun

Its not my business whether those people have positive ROI's or not... but the only way I'd believe someone who told me they made money betting would be to see their tax forms.

Edit: mistergee makes a very good point. Rebates can give you a chance at a positive ROI.

The Indomitable DrugS · #11 06-05-2009, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

some of the .1% in the country with positive roi's are right here Lori !

The number is obviously much higher than .1%

Jockey Kerwin Clark has ridden over 3,000 mounts in his career at Evangeline Downs ... and his ROI is above $2.40.

So, he's over 20% profitable from a 3K + sample size .. and he doesn't have nearly as much freedom as a bettor does to pick and choose.