Believable ROI and Win %

hockey2315 · #1 06-05-2009, 02:09 PM

It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.

the_fat_man · #2 06-05-2009, 02:11 PM

But that's exactly the point. 35% winners AND a high ROI just don't quite go hand in hand. With the low prices you have to be consistently better than 1 out of 3. There's a very small margin for error.

gales0678 · #3 06-05-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But that's exactly the point. 35% winners AND a high ROI just don't quite go hand in hand. With the low prices you have to be consistently better than 1 out of 3. There's a very small margin for error.

is the culprit giving out a high roi and high win % ???

or is it a low win % but high roi %? this could be possible if he is connected to a barn or a clocker for 1st'ers that win with bad works in the form

hockey2315 · #4 06-05-2009, 02:14 PM

I agree that if someone had a high ROI their win % would be much lower than 35%.

Antitrust32 · #5 06-05-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.

Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.

Thunder Gulch · #6 06-05-2009, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.

Yes, but every statistical study I've ever seen had favorites winning around that 33% clip, but also beating the take by losing only +/- 10%. In fact, for win betting, the % loss grows greater at every increasing odds tick, meaning by betting longshots you have to be even better when compared to the total pool of wagers.