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#1
06-05-2009, 01:49 PM
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lori i think he may just be talking about today or the last few days so it's very possible that there are some + roi's out there 
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#2
06-05-2009, 01:52 PM
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There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).
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#4
06-05-2009, 02:01 PM
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15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.
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#5
06-05-2009, 02:07 PM
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I think that 15-20% (and up) ROI on wins bets in more believable than a
35% win rate.
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#6
06-05-2009, 02:09 PM
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It depends - I think you could pull off a 35% win rate with your eyes closed if you were completely unconcerned with value.
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#7
06-05-2009, 02:11 PM
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But that's exactly the point. 35% winners AND a high ROI just don't quite go hand in hand. With the low prices you have to be consistently better than 1 out of 3. There's a very small margin for error.
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#8
06-05-2009, 02:14 PM
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Just bet favorites every race and you'll win at a 33% clip. You'll also lose a lot of money.
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#9
06-05-2009, 02:13 PM
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I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI. I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI. But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones. I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.
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#10
06-05-2009, 02:15 PM
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#11
06-05-2009, 02:17 PM
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Just realized that I read Gales win % fig as ROI for some reason. His ROI guess is even more impossible than what I thought it was. And Antitrust, I agree that it's very hard to profit over time, but not nearly as impossible as you think.
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#12
06-05-2009, 02:23 PM
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LOL gales. I've got a nice bridge to sell you also!
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#13
06-05-2009, 03:54 PM
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Jockey Kerwin Clark has ridden over 3,000 mounts in his career at Evangeline Downs ... and his ROI is above $2.40. So, he's over 20% profitable from a 3K + sample size .. and he doesn't have nearly as much freedom as a bettor does to pick and choose.
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#14
06-05-2009, 02:17 PM
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I highly doubt someone could win 315 out of 900 races (35%), unless they were betting strickly favorites. But the ROI would be in the negative. I believe you are correct on calling bullshit on whoever this poster is. Maybe he doesnt count any losing tickets when computing an ROI 
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#15
06-05-2009, 04:04 PM
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Ole' Timer says to another leaving Keystone Race Track (Philly ) ...""Its a good thing I broke even today, I really needed the money """!!!! Gotta Love Horse Racing !!
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#16
06-05-2009, 04:10 PM
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Some guy from California who has done seminars with none other than Aaron Hesz.
He claims a prominent California breeder asked him to take over his ranch and breed his horses but he declined.
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#17
06-05-2009, 04:31 PM
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My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.
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#18
06-05-2009, 04:50 PM
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if you are hitting 35% of win bets with a high ROI you are good enough to be questioned (or are really lying) , and at the same time you are saying that you don't understand the parimutuel system.
the goal in a parimutuel market is to pick low priced losers. Then you search all the available pools and find the highest percentage play that returns your minimum value demand. If your bankroll is $1000, you might bet about $20-40 on the play. Usually your are limited to WPS and DB Ex. If you are willing to gamble risk of ruin for higher payout you can use the multi race wagers.
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#19
06-05-2009, 07:53 PM
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Hybrid Mode
