Believable ROI and Win %

What is this a quiz?

Professor Obessio in the hiz-ouse.

My answer is you can't believe 99% of the posts on Face Disadvantage.

[Antitrust32]

I dont really believe anyone who say they make money gambling on horses.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I dont really believe anyone who say they make money gambling on horses.

lori i think he may just be talking about today or the last few days

so it's very possible that there are some + roi's out there

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori i think he may just be talking about today or the last few days

so it's very possible that there are some + roi's out there

No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

what is the user name?

[hockey2315]

15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.

[the_fat_man]

I think that 15-20% (and up) ROI on wins bets in more believable than a
35% win rate.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

15-20% seems VERY high to me for just win bets over a significant enough sample size. I doubt there are many if any regular players in the country that have such a high ROI from straight wins alone. The take-out is a lot to overcome and the pools have become increasingly efficient.

I think he meant actually winning the bet 15-20% of the time... not the ROI.


I think its very possible to win 1 out of every 5 win bets you make. But I dont think it would equate, overtime to a positive ROI.


But with takeout and everything it is VERY hard to make money over time. I'd guess just play pick 6's and pick 4's and hope to hit some big ones.

I would expect a negative ROI for 99.9% of bettors and breaking even or making a small amount of money for a very small percentage of players.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

I highly doubt someone could win 315 out of 900 races (35%), unless they were betting strickly favorites. But the ROI would be in the negative.


I believe you are correct on calling bullshit on whoever this poster is. Maybe he doesnt count any losing tickets when computing an ROI

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No

There's someone claiming a high ROI and Win % for over 900 races (over the course of 1 year).

Chucklestheclown ??

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Some guy from California who has done seminars with none other than Aaron Hesz.

He claims a prominent California breeder asked him to take over his ranch and breed his horses but he declined.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

With all these races being taken off the turf (BEL and just about everywhere else on the eastern part) I've been reading (on that other forum) about some extraordinary claims concerning ROI and Win %.

What would be a believable win % for win bets?

What would be a believable win % for exotics bets?

What would be a believable ROI for win bets?

What would be a believable ROI for exotic bets?

What would be a believable ROI for all bets?

Looking more for empirically grounded responses.

Just using my current stats as a reference..

My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI

My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI

My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill

Chucklestheclown ??

Jealous? I'm watching Belmont replays right now; what are you doing?
p.s.-See above and bet MTB in the Belmont.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I dont really believe anyone who say they make money gambling on horses.

This was probably more the case 20 or 30 years ago than it is today. With access to all the tracks presently operating, one need no longer be limited and could play to their strength(s). It's not about taking what your local track gives you and make the best of it any longer.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This was probably more the case 20 or 30 years ago than it is today. With access to all the tracks presently operating, one need no longer be limited and could play to their strength(s). It's not about taking what your local track gives you and make the best of it any longer.

That does makes sense... go through the different tracks and make one or two bets that you feel very comfortable with. Would take a ton of skill and discipline. But I'm willing to lower my percentage to 99% of horseplayers lose $ instead of 99.9%.

Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only?

Or is multi-race bets the only way?

[MISTERGEE]

most people ive ever known to win over a length of time

1-bet exotics

2- bet extremely heavy, using many combos

3- work on a very small roi, and also depend on their rebates

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only?

Or is multi-race bets the only way?

This is a multi-race forum. Here, it's all about playing exotics.

Personally, I think investing a (relatively) significant amount of money to get back 6-10:1 (or less, as is usually the case) is not the way to go. I believe that it's easier to make money betting to win. And, additionally, it's a bit harder to win betting limited number (2 plays max) exotics (exactas and doubles).

But the real problem, assuming one has the skill, is actually believing you can do it. Let's say, for example, that I have a 25% hit rate with a 25% ROI over 60 win bets. At what point do I start believing that I can do this consistently? Over how many races do I need to show similar numbers? 100, 500, 1000? And, additionally, how am I showing this return: are my prices consistent or do I have a number of huge longshots? Do I count on 5 'scores' over the year to make my money, like the exotic player, or do I have consistent returns? It's a mind game thing.