Dunkirk

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

I don't know how much of 'just a prep' it can be, considering he probably has to win to get the earnings.

[SniperSB23]

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

[parsixfarms]

Let's not forget that Pletcher tried the same thing in the 2002 Florida Derby with Smooth Jazz, as a rabbit for Nokoma. He ended up setting the race up for Harlan's Holiday.

[Travis Stone]

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

easily Dunkirk

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by robfla

easily Dunkirk

Really? Easily? If Dunkirk is favored, I think he'll be a slight favorite.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

Just as Bishop Court Hill was used to more make things harder for Lava Man than it was to help out Flower Alley - who also wasn't a closer.

Same with Lukas running Camanche Trail as a rabbit more to hurt Holy Bull than help a stalker like Tabasco Cat.

The rabbit flatters setup closers like Giacomo, Borrego, and Concern ... and can hurt the stalking types almost as much as the seemingly need-the-lead speed horses.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

I agree that Bandini (also owned by Tabor but with Pletcher instead of Biancone) was never a one-run closer. However, to my way of thinking, given the pace that developed, Bandini was nearer the pace in the Derby (a race that eventually fell apart) than I would have expected with the tactics being employed by Spanish Chestnut.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'm not thrilled with Dunkirk.

i agree, if he wins this week i'll change my view. but i think its a chump bet to take a short price on this horse in the FLA derby. he has not beaten much but that could change. i look for value not the bandwagon.

[Thunder Gulch]

I wish I could get odds against Dunkirk starting in the Derby.

[Linny]

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Linny

For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out?

I think its a win and you're in for Dunkirk. ( Unless they go to the BG of course )Not enough earnings if not first. Isn't 2nd place only 150k in graded earnings?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Linny

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-withers-next

Nice to see some people learn!

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-withers-next

Nice to see some people learn!

How much you want to bet that, if he wins the Withers, he runs in the Preakness? Then we'll see how much they learned.