Dunkirk
 

Dismantling Warrior's Reward - who ran 2nd behind him in his alw race - it doesn't seem as impressive after WR was a soundly beaten 8th at 5/1 odds with no big excuse behind Musket Man in the low rated Tampa Derby.

I realize Dunkirk was hung wide on the first turn while WR saved ground and all ... but 3rd place finisher Sincero - beaten 6.5 lengths by Dunkirk - was beaten 9 by Take The Points and 6.5 by Free Country in his two prior starts. He was only a path wider than Dunkirk on both turns - and considering the way he got shuffled on the far turn - it was pretty shocking that he was only giving slight ground away to Dunkirk through the lane.

Yeah - the 98 Beyer with the wide trip looks great - but that fig might be high. The 2nd place finisher has already flopped. And the 3rd place finisher had no worse of a trip and still managed to get a career top Beyer.

I understand he hasn't done anything wrong ... but this horse has not even come close to showing the kind of talent a Big Brown or Curlin had shown in there first two races.

I hope Pletcher runs his rabbit with him .. the way to bet the Florida Derby is to get Dunkirk out of the tri IMO.

I don't think that anyone who looked at the allowance race would have wanted Warrior's Reward, who got an ABSOLUTELY PERFECT TRIP, back. Why, then, are we using his EXPECTED dismal performance in the TBD as a way to gauge Dunkirk?

And, Sincero was one path INSIDE of Dunkirk on the 1st turn, was probably helped by getting shuffled back at a key point on the 2nd turn, and LOST ground in the stretch run.

If I were someone who thought that Dunkirk was a horse, I'd have to ask you to come up with something a bit stronger.

In Fat Chart Land, Dunkirk has run twice and 'wiped out' the field in each case. I don't know what this means in terms of how good he actually is but it's certainly NOT a negative.

Perhaps you are discounting the alledged lack of anabolic steriod testing at GP.. Amazing how Pletchers walking wounded stable has now become pretinent again.. Shocker

Isn't Pretinent a fertility drug?

Why would I know anything about fertility drugs.. I have more dependants then some mexican municipalities. Anyway drugs are bad

Obama just told me that 95% of the country are my dependents. Beat that.

He ain't no Patena.

good luck with claiming all of them next april.

is Dunkirk brilliant ? = not so far

is Dunkirk overrated ? = by a lot of people

Did Dunkirk face the full effect of 9furlong Gulfstream wide 1st turn bias ? = No, a decent inside speed did not save all the ground , loom a winning threat , get a breather, & force the "outside horse" to challenge a fresh rival on the 2nd turn.

Can a healthy reasonable trip Dunkirk run 9 furlongs in less than 1:50 ? = yes

Can anyone else ? = If he doesn't tire badly Quality Road, and maybe possibly Beethoven on his best day... JoJo= hellNoNo


That is basically where i'm at with this. I know it's fashionable to over-think reasons why a popular favorite who hasn't run a brilliant race is going to lose. And I know Quality Road ran a brilliant 1-turn mile...
Sometimes solid beats spectacular in a 9 or 10 furlong race. Sometimes spectacular milers suck at 9 furlongs. I'm rooting for one of them to run the kind of race that stamps them the derby favorite. I could care less which one, but Dunkirk appears most likely to win here. His normal race wins, while I don't see Quality Road loving the stretch out as "normal" - QR could quit just as likely as he could romp.

At ten times the price .. I'd take either Patena or West Side Bernie over him in a heart beat.

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

Nice Matt!

only North American appearance - 4/2 Ft. Lauderdale

http://www.ironmaiden.com/index.php?...articleid=1098

must be an omen

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

if he moves forward as he should and the jerkins horse blows his wad or fails to be so brilliant..he should do well in the derby if he gets in..hes ped and connections are not junk..

I don't know how much of 'just a prep' it can be, considering he probably has to win to get the earnings.

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

i agree, if he wins this week i'll change my view. but i think its a chump bet to take a short price on this horse in the FLA derby. he has not beaten much but that could change. i look for value not the bandwagon.

I wish I could get odds against Dunkirk starting in the Derby.

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.