Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Frustrating day as Patricia Ann finished last and Sky’s Not Falling had a slow start and then flattened out just when it looked like he might make a move to get up for maybe second, ultimately finishing 4th.

I also continued my habit of hitting 4 of 5 on the Pick 5. Really liked that 6 horse that won the finale but did not have Celtic Dawn in the 6th. Really messed my ticket up by not singling the 1A race 8 but I thought that 8 could compete.

Ah well. Onward.

$264.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

[theguarantee]

Back in the negative on the year, time to turn it around, feels like I slump at Saratoga around the same time every year - not just on these two a day picks but my handicapping/play in general. Won't hit all the picks but a few notes since last update:

R10 8/14 Blame It On KJ was arguably best with a wild trip but ultimately settled for second paying $6.80 to place.
R9 8/15 Ellen Jay had about as bad of a trip as I’ve watched in a while, really worth a re-watch if anyone missed it. Was she beating Future is Now? Hard to say...but he surely would’ve been second and I think at least would’ve made it a race...settled for third ultimately.
R10 8/15 Twohonestmischief did all the dirty work and was second best but got edged for the place in the final jump – would’ve been a nice payout considering for show he was just shy of nine bucks.
This past weekend picks all ran from fair to very poor.
Backed that up with a couple of lasts yesterday.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $255.70

[theguarantee]

8/21:
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Fast Market 6/1

Best Value:Race 10 #10 Apertif 6/1

[moses]

$272.00 wagered
$296.60 returned

Mo Kreesa did not get the aggressive up front ride that I wanted but it's also possible he just wasn't good enough. Vehemente got the exact ride I hoped for and was able to wire the field, paying $11.40 to win and $4.10 to place

I don't love the Friday card but there are a few horses I think are worth taking shots on at midrange prices.

Race 8. #6 Mama's Gold 6/1. I know that the pace might get fast here but that hasn't stopped him before. He was never going to win the Whitney but I respect the connections for taking a chance. He ends up in a dicey allowance race here but he really is the speed of the speed here so I'm hoping he can get out front and never look back.

Race 10. #4 Alexis Zorba 7/2 If he is really going to be 7/2 then sign me up. He should easily handle this field, even if he has a habit of giving up the lead late. I’m not seeing what horse here will be able to run him down.

[moses]

$280.00 wagered
$304.70 returned

Alexis Zorba went off way below the ML at around 7/5 and paid $7.70 total for win and place. Mama’s Gold was terrible and me falling in love there probably cost me the Pick 5 as I didn’t include Film Star.

Saturday picks.

H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Race 10. #3 Barnes 9/2. Talented Baffert colt has been working great and I think he needed a little time off. Looking for him to fire a big one off the layoff at a square price.

Forego Stakes. Race 12. #8 Scotland 12/1. If Scotland’s last race was just a prep for this one, I think he’ll have a really good chance to win this. He’s definitely got to improve but I’ll take a shot on him at 12/1.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$280.00 wagered
$304.70 returned

Alexis Zorba went off way below the ML at around 7/5 and paid $7.70 total for win and place. Mama’s Gold was terrible and me falling in love there probably cost me the Pick 5 as I didn’t include Film Star.

Saturday picks.

H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Race 10. #3 Barnes 9/2. Talented Baffert colt has been working great and I think he needed a little time off. Looking for him to fire a big one off the layoff at a square price.

Forego Stakes. Race 12. #8 Scotland 12/1. If Scotland’s last race was just a prep for this one, I think he’ll have a really good chance to win this. He’s definitely got to improve but I’ll take a shot on him at 12/1.

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

[theguarantee]

Fast Market chased and faded badly.
Apertif paid $9.80 to place, likely to break her maiden next out or soon…
Midnight Concerto took back to last and split the field with a much more mild finish than I expected/hoped for.
Dylan rode Cousin Ed the way I hoped, taking back a bit and worked out a nice trip, was just not good enough to catch Alexis Zorba, proving second best paying $8.30 to place.
Raging Sea again had a mess of it at the start but continues to just fall way too far out of these races early and she’s passing tired rivals late but not a whole lot more.
No idea what Prat was doing with Mullikan, that was a dreadful ride but he ran so poorly maybe it didn’t matter.

Wagered: $288.00
Returned: $273.80

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

Returned $3.60 with Bettrluckythangood finishing 2nd. Just grinding it out.

$296.00 wagered
$316.00 returned

[theguarantee]

8/22:
Best Bet: Race 10 #2 Cousin Ed 8/1 - I don't have much of an excuse for the last where he saved every step of ground but I view this as a wide open field and just think he's the best price of the win candidates. This feels like the right level and while perhaps he's going to get a similar trip today I'm hoping Dylan is a little more patient and perhaps that will lead to a better late kick. I just feel there might still be a touch of upside here and today is the day to get a price if I'm right.

Best Value: Race 9 #12 Midnight Conerto 20/1 - Going to be tough for Elliott to work out a trip from this post but at the likely odds I'll roll the dice that he can. Two back against some of the main rivals she got no pace at all to chase and did OK splitting the field. I didn't think the last race was a good fit for her and she seems to prefer the inner. She has to improve today from a difficult post but I thought those fall races portended some ability and we haven't seen that step forward yet, hoping today is the day.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Travers Day 8/23:

Best Value: Race 9 Personal Ensign #3 Raging Sea 5/1 - The race two back is one of the all-time trips that is very easy to draw a line through, the question is why did she run so badly last time? While she got bumped early it was not nearly as bad as two back and although the race didn't really set up for her I don't truly have an excuse. It looks like the works since have been great and Chad running her back here tells me he must have confidence she bounces back with a better effort today. Looks to set up absolutely perfectly for her with all the speed.

Best Bet: Race 12 Forego #7 Mullikan 7/2 - I know on paper there isn't much reason to think he turns the tables on Book Em Danno but I think the 7F plays to his favor, I love that Brisset kept him up in Saratoga pointing here and I actually feel like the odds on those two are going to be reverse of the order they should be (with good reason on recent results) - I think the distance and schedule Mullikan took here will be enough to turn the tables. I'm very afraid of Most Wanted, but I think Mullikan should be more like 8/5 in here so I'll take what I consider to be an overlay.