Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Wednesday.

Race 4. #4 Summer Cause, 8/1. I originally had Embraceable Gal in race 2 in this spot but I wanted to take a bit of a bigger swing. Summer Cause only has two starts on turf. His debut was very impressive as he circled the field and ran away from them. Even in that race, I’m not sure he was totally comfortable but his turf talent was on display. His second start, he stumbled out of the gate but still ran well, one of only two horses to make up any ground. The other was Crystal Quest who ran 2nd in an OC route on the turf last week with a 90 Beyer. In both turf races, Summer Cause has shown a good cruising speed, long stride, and he just looks like he wants more distance.

The three favorites here leave some things to be desired. #6 Corruption might go off under even money. His last 3 races are all strong but I question if he’ll see some pace pressure from Otello. He did nearly beat Far Bridge 3 back but FB was coming off a layoff and Corruption got a fairly easy trip on the often speed favoring Gulfstream turf. I question that performance and I also wonder how good the field was 2 back when Corruption wired them at Churchill. So I just don’t want any parts of him at a short price. The next horse on the morning line is #5 Hush of a Storm. This horse is a decent horse but nothing would make me want to bet him at 3/1 and Cox has been a little cold lately. The projected third choice is Master Piece at 5/1 and note he’s got figures from just last year that would wallop this field and now draws Irad. But I don’t really want to bet on a 9 year old that seems to be struggling to regain that top form. So, that leaves me with Summer Cause who I think will be a big big price and can certainly win this with a step forward from his two turf starts.

Race 8. #9 Bernietakescharge, 10/1. There is a not so small chance that this horse either gets the early lead or tracks just outside at a modest pace and runs away with it in the stretch.

Thursday.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 7. #5 Midnightloveaffair, 8/1. Purely on figures, this horse has as good of a chance as anyone in here. What I really like is that she won by 5 lengths in a turf sprint. Her final two eights were 11.31 and 11.27 seconds. What was she doing in a maiden claimer? She’s got some talent and she’s going to be a big price and there’s no reason she can’t improve off that impressive maiden win.

[theguarantee]

Was away last week so haven't updated in a while. Let's just say things have cooled for me of late...lots of thirds and lots of lasts/close enough to last...hit Hedge the Risk Saturday and a pair of seconds on Sunday.

Wagered: $136.00
Returned: $145.50

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Was away last week so haven't updated in a while. Let's just say things have cooled for me of late...lots of thirds and lots of lasts/close enough to last...hit Hedge the Risk Saturday and a pair of seconds on Sunday.

Wagered: $136.00
Returned: $145.50

You’re still up for the meet overall. Just need a few picks to go your way.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday.

Race 4. #4 Summer Cause, 8/1. I originally had Embraceable Gal in race 2 in this spot but I wanted to take a bit of a bigger swing. Summer Cause only has two starts on turf. His debut was very impressive as he circled the field and ran away from them. Even in that race, I’m not sure he was totally comfortable but his turf talent was on display. His second start, he stumbled out of the gate but still ran well, one of only two horses to make up any ground. The other was Crystal Quest who ran 2nd in an OC route on the turf last week with a 90 Beyer. In both turf races, Summer Cause has shown a good cruising speed, long stride, and he just looks like he wants more distance.

The three favorites here leave some things to be desired. #6 Corruption might go off under even money. His last 3 races are all strong but I question if he’ll see some pace pressure from Otello. He did nearly beat Far Bridge 3 back but FB was coming off a layoff and Corruption got a fairly easy trip on the often speed favoring Gulfstream turf. I question that performance and I also wonder how good the field was 2 back when Corruption wired them at Churchill. So I just don’t want any parts of him at a short price. The next horse on the morning line is #5 Hush of a Storm. This horse is a decent horse but nothing would make me want to bet him at 3/1 and Cox has been a little cold lately. The projected third choice is Master Piece at 5/1 and note he’s got figures from just last year that would wallop this field and now draws Irad. But I don’t really want to bet on a 9 year old that seems to be struggling to regain that top form. So, that leaves me with Summer Cause who I think will be a big big price and can certainly win this with a step forward from his two turf starts.

Race 8. #9 Bernietakescharge, 10/1. There is a not so small chance that this horse either gets the early lead or tracks just outside at a modest pace and runs away with it in the stretch.

Thursday.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 7. #5 Midnightloveaffair, 8/1. Purely on figures, this horse has as good of a chance as anyone in here. What I really like is that she won by 5 lengths in a turf sprint. Her final two eights were 11.31 and 11.27 seconds. What was she doing in a maiden claimer? She’s got some talent and she’s going to be a big price and there’s no reason she can’t improve off that impressive maiden win.

Bernietakescharge scratches out today. Other speeds scratched, which makes me wonder what the pace will look like. #11 Tricky Temper might have needed her last race and wouldn’t be shocked to see Jose Ortiz get her up front and never look back. Jeremiah Englehart often does better 2nd off a long layoff. But what I think this does it sets it up for #2 Dolomite who is going to sit a perfect inside trip behind the 11 and we might get that 5/1 figure as we know a lot of money will come in on My Mane Squeeze and Sterling Silver. Dolomite is sitting on a big race here and I think will be a fair price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Cupid's Heart 8/1 - Was way more enthused about this from a pace and price perspective pre-scratches but I like her enough today I'll stick with it.

Best Value: Race 9 # 5 Fifi La Fulme 6/1 - Always had a thing for this one, not the type I usually bet but I think meets the right field today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Good switch for me as Embraceable Gal has no excuses after the other two contenders scratched and instead got beat by the longest shot on the board.

Not sure what Summer Cause will do but it won’t be more disappointing than that.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Cupid's Heart 8/1 - Was way more enthused about this from a pace and price perspective pre-scratches but I like her enough today I'll stick with it.

Best Value: Race 9 # 5 Fifi La Fulme 6/1 - Always had a thing for this one, not the type I usually bet but I think meets the right field today.

Good luck.

I almost pivoted to to Tricky Temper in the 8th which would've been a better result but was no match for My Mane Squeeze anyway...Cupid's Heart continued her string of never breaking and never really had a shot. Fifi ran OK again and was a clear second but not even close to a match for the winner paying $5.80 to place.

$144.00 wagered
$151.30 returned

[moses]

Looking at the forecast, I strongly suspect the turf races are coming off. With that in mind, not going to stick with Midnightloveaffair. Instead, here are my Thursday picks.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 9. #5 The Wine Steward, 6/1. The #2 Bank Frenzy is a pretty nice horse but doesn’t own figures so much better than this field that I want to bet him at 3/1. The likely favorite #9 Whatchatalkinabout has had two very strong races to start his 4YO year. But if you look back at Whatchatalkinabout compared to The Wine Steward, you’ll see that The Wine Steward beat him at Saratoga in the Funnycide in their 2YO season.

Since that race, the two horses have taken very different paths. The Wine Steward stepped up in class and performed well, with place finishes in the Breeders Futurity, Lexington, and Peter Pan before faltering in the Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Whatchatalkinabout stayed in the lower ranks and faced off against NY Bred and allowance horses until May of this year when he won the John Nerud Stakes.

But back to The Wine Steward. He had a nice stakes win to start off his 4YO year and was immediately thrown to the wolves again, trying to keep up with Saudi Crown and Banishing in the Oaklawn Park Mile and unsurprisingly getting run into the ground (though holding on for third.) While the last race for him at Lonestar Park might make you think he doesn’t like a wet track, he seemed to run just fine two back in the mud. I’d guess his very wide trip around both turns was more to blame than anything. Even the very talented Touchuponastar (you might disagree with this assessment if your name is Chad Brown) came up empty in the stretch after being wide throughout. It seems like you wanted to be near the rail that day. So I’m going to throw that race out. The Wine Steward ran back to his prior season numbers in his 4YO debut. He then had two impossible tasks. This is a much easier spot and I’d expect him to, at minimum, run back to his 4YO debut figure and I’d guess he improves on that. If he does, he’s going to win. And, oh yeah, Prat is aboard. I just hope his presence doesn’t deflate the odds too much.

[theguarantee]

Ugly card today. I like your analysis of the Morrissey. It's where I landed as well so I won't waste time adding anything to your thorough write-up.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 The Wine Steward 6/1

Best Value: Race 10 #1A Soundbite 8/1 - Wide open race still off the turf as I think you can make a case for basically anyone in here. With that said and expecting to get less than the ML obviously, I think Soundbite is kind of in the best form of any of these. She was slow to break her maiden but she's come back to run three pretty nice races since then including the blowout win two back same surface and distance.

[moses]

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday.

Race 4. #4 Summer Cause, 8/1. I originally had Embraceable Gal in race 2 in this spot but I wanted to take a bit of a bigger swing. Summer Cause only has two starts on turf. His debut was very impressive as he circled the field and ran away from them. Even in that race, I’m not sure he was totally comfortable but his turf talent was on display. His second start, he stumbled out of the gate but still ran well, one of only two horses to make up any ground. The other was Crystal Quest who ran 2nd in an OC route on the turf last week with a 90 Beyer. In both turf races, Summer Cause has shown a good cruising speed, long stride, and he just looks like he wants more distance.

The three favorites here leave some things to be desired. #6 Corruption might go off under even money. His last 3 races are all strong but I question if he’ll see some pace pressure from Otello. He did nearly beat Far Bridge 3 back but FB was coming off a layoff and Corruption got a fairly easy trip on the often speed favoring Gulfstream turf. I question that performance and I also wonder how good the field was 2 back when Corruption wired them at Churchill. So I just don’t want any parts of him at a short price. The next horse on the morning line is #5 Hush of a Storm. This horse is a decent horse but nothing would make me want to bet him at 3/1 and Cox has been a little cold lately. The projected third choice is Master Piece at 5/1 and note he’s got figures from just last year that would wallop this field and now draws Irad. But I don’t really want to bet on a 9 year old that seems to be struggling to regain that top form. So, that leaves me with Summer Cause who I think will be a big big price and can certainly win this with a step forward from his two turf starts.

Race 8. #9 Bernietakescharge, 10/1. There is a not so small chance that this horse either gets the early lead or tracks just outside at a modest pace and runs away with it in the stretch.

Thursday.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 7. #5 Midnightloveaffair, 8/1. Purely on figures, this horse has as good of a chance as anyone in here. What I really like is that she won by 5 lengths in a turf sprint. Her final two eights were 11.31 and 11.27 seconds. What was she doing in a maiden claimer? She’s got some talent and she’s going to be a big price and there’s no reason she can’t improve off that impressive maiden win.

Summer Cause ran an OK but distant third. Dolomite had the position I expected but appears to have bled. Doubtful she would have won but second place was up for grabs as #11 Tricky Temper landed there and paid $10.40 to place.

Sticking with the above picks for Thursday (for now) thought it appears my Rice/Carmouche angle played out today in Race 5. We’ll see if it can happen again tomorrow. Rain in the forecast so stay tuned.

$144.00 wagered
$243.90 returned