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#1
07-24-2025, 05:52 PM
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Race 5. #2 Hidden Agenda, 12/1. Flashed a little bit of speed in a MSW race on the turf back in May on a good turf. They’ve tried to run back on turf but have gotten washed off. Elliott aboard. He needs to get out of the gate clean and this one has a shot. Really don’t love any of the likely favorites in this race so why not take a swing? Race 9 (Amsterdam Stakes). #5 Gate to Wire, 5/1. I’ve liked this horse for a while and note the effort in the Swale makes him a player here if he can repeat. His three races after that were the FOY around two turns, then the Pat Day Mile in the slop and the Woody Stephens on a muddy track. Let’s get him back around one turn on a fast track and see what happens. 
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#2
07-25-2025, 01:08 PM
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7/25
Best Bet: Race 10 #4 Professor Grace 5/1 - Hoping with these chilly connections to get all the ML. Should like the stretch and hope javy gets a little more forward today. View as the most likely winner in this field. Best Value: Ace 4 #4 True Connection 9/2 - while hopefully many dismiss the last as a bad field/sloppy track out of nowhere performance I'm guessing Brad Cox just has this horse the best hes been in a while. Hes pretty well bred and showed some ability early in his career.I suppose you could argue if he was really moving forward why this spot but its probably just being realistic and wanting to win at Saratoga.
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#3
07-25-2025, 06:55 PM
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$120.00 wagered $209.10 returned Saturday. Race 9. Lake George. #3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1. Obviously, Classic Q is the one to beat here but a few things going against her. The course may not be as speed friendly, she has to go further, and while there isn’t much pace signed on, I think you’ll see a little more pace pressure in a bigger field. Daisy Flyer has already beaten Classic Q, and that was on the speed friendly Gulfstream turf course (though CQ was not up front that day). I loved how she got into stride in the lane and think if she gets any pace at all to run at, she could be flying late and beat them all here. She needs to get faster from last out but she’s been away for a few months and it would be no surprise if she’s developed since we last saw her. Race 10. Jim Dandy. #1 Baeza, 3/1. If I can get 3/1 on him, I’ll be happy. Sovereignty is obviously the best horse in this race but you’ve got to think Bill Mott is looking toward the Travers and won’t lose sleep with a 2nd place finish here. Baeza gets Berrios back and should get the perfect trip just behind Mo Plex.
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#4
07-26-2025, 07:03 AM
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Some thoughts on the Late Pick 5 today. Not going to do this frequently but I like the sequence, the key being to single Baeza and go wide in Race 11. It was tempting to try to go wider Race 8 but I really like this Finger Lakes invader and didn’t want to dilute that opinion too much. If playing a bigger ticket, I’d probably go wider Race 9 as many of the horses in that race are capable but also wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to simply single Classic Q based on the projected pace scenario.
Race 8. #4 Blamicker 8/1 (Englehart/Worrie) (A) #2 Stewie 5/1 (Begg/I Ortiz) (A) #9 Kenny Be 7/2 (Duggan/J Ortiz) (B) #3 Vekinda 4/1 (Weaver/Franco) (-) Race 9. #3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1 (Arnold/Lezcano) (A) #4 Lavender Disaster, 5/2 (Brown/I Ortiz) (A) #5 Classic Q, 2/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (C) #2 Pretty Lavish, 12/1 (Motion/Castellano) (C) Race 10. #1 Baeza, 3/1 (Shirreffs/Berrios) (A) #5 Sovereignty, 2/5 (Mott/Alvarado) (C) #3 Mo Plex, 10/1 (Englehart/Franco) (-) #2 Sandman, 6/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (-) Race 11. #6 Nonna Lynne, 6/1 (Brown/Franco) (A) #9 Hello Beauty, 5/2 (Sisterson/Dettori) (A) #1/1A De Paz Entry, 6/1 (B) #3 Off Script, 9/2 (Walden/I Ortiz) (B) Race 12. #6 Majestic Michael, 8/1 (Green/Carmouche) (A) #7 Fateful Lightning, 2/1 (Cox/Franco) (A) #11 Got Stripes, 12/1 (Devaux/J Ortiz) (C) #9 Battle Drum, 6/1 (Pletcher/I Ortiz) (C) Pick 5 play (Simple A+B) 2,4,9 / 3,4 / 1 / 1,2,3,4,6,9 / 6,7 ($36.00)
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#5
07-26-2025, 03:15 PM
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Best Bet: Race 12 #10 Hedge the Risk 9/2
Best Value: Race 11 #1 Night Jasmine 6/1
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#8
07-27-2025, 02:58 PM
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7/27:
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Bellezza 5/2 - Didn't love a ton on this card so rather than force a longshot I'll just take a horse I think is a likely winner and if the ML holds is fair value to me. Best Value: Race 10 $13 Salvation 6/1 - This is kind of an interesting race still and I was initially leaning toward Ennis Town but I wonder if that one might end up taking some steam and I just don't know that I fully trust it...Salvation just feels well placed here, won't take the Irad money the other Linda will (I would think)...is probably the fastest horse coming in...and while maybe lacks the upside of some of the others like Iron Sight and Prove, if they were really going to jump in with big efforts would they be in here? Maybe, but I think Salvation will get a nice trip from the outside post with some tactical speed and should hopefully get first run,
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#9
07-27-2025, 03:44 PM
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$136.00 wagered
$243.90 returned $8.10 for Solo Jim who ran 2nd. Really frustrated today as I had a couple longshots come out in horizontals but didn’t include La Mahena there in Race 7 so my mid Pick 5 and Late Pick 5 are toast.
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#10
07-26-2025, 07:15 PM
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$128.00 wagered $235.80 returned Sunday. Rain in the forecast. Race 4. #3 Handsome Pants, 8/1. I view Bestfriend Rocket, Georgia Magic, and Handsome Pants all similarly and think one of them is the winner. Handsome Pants will be twice the price of the other two so I’ll take a swing with him. Yes, the pace sets up for Just Licorice but I’m not really worried about him. Race 6. #3 Solo Jim, 8/1. Solo Jim adds blinkers and gets Johnny V aboard. Looking for an aggressive ride out of this one and I don’t see why he can’t improve enough off his debut to win this one. (Note: I edited these picks today. I originally had Immensitude in the Glen Falls but I watched replays and really don’t want to bet against Bellezza there.) Last edited by moses : 07-27-2025 at 06:30 AM.
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