Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

$232.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

The cold streak continues. Burn Rubber got the pace and trip I was expecting but just was not good enough. I might be taking too big of a swing with some of these picks...but I've got to keep taking shots where I think there is some value.

Friday.

I'm tempted to go with some short prices here just to get a win...but #4 Invictus in Race 2 is 8/5 and has Manny Franco aboard and I'm just not going to bet that horse at the price with the way Manny has been riding lately, even if he looks like the lone speed and that the 8/5 price will hold as former Breeders Cup Classic entry Dreamlike is entered here. I also tried to talk myself into just using Future Is Now as a single but the Smart N Fancy Stakes came up a little salty, imo, and Future Is Now looks to get yet another wide trip. So instead, here's where I ended up for the day.

Race 4. #4 Bellacose 8/1. Imagine getting Ward/Velazquez in a turf sprint at 8/1. I'm hoping that price holds as there doesn't seem to be much pace here with it looking like Bellacose and the #2 Bustin Bullet (Blinkers ON) will contend for the early lead. But Johnny V and Irad are both smart riders and I don't expect them to get into a duel that mutually assures their own destruction. Of the two, I prefer Bellacose who is lightly raced and has enough turf pedigree, combined with some nice turf workouts, for me to take a risk on her turf debut.

Race 9. #2 Risk Threshold 12/1. Future Is Now is going to be very tough to beat here but I want to take a chance on Risk Threshold who has put in two solid efforts in her most recent allowance races and should be primed for a peak performance here. Junior Alvarado has been great at working out ground-saving trips on the turf so far this meet and I'm not sure she's quite fast enough to contest the early pace so my hope is that she gets a perfect rail trip right behind the main speed.

[theguarantee]

8/15:

Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Ellen Jay 3/1 - Really wanted to go back to Twirling Queen at a better price but I just couldn't find the advantage for her over Future Is Now here. I considered some others too and again just wasn't convinced...Ellen Jay on the other hand isn't going to be all that much of a price, however she's the one with all the upside, is coming in working really well by the looks of it and ultimately I thought was the most convincing alternative.

Best Value: Race 10 #5 Twohonestmischief 12/1 - It felt like last time was the time for Solo Jim who can win here..Undisputed and Kaz Oil Changer can also win but don't exactly get the pulse racing so I wanted to find a longer shot. I totally get anyone thinking Twohonestmischief won't get the mile, the breeding is all sprint and the stretchout attempts don't exactly inspire confidence. With that said I think he's loose in here and I get the sense this could be the type of race where that might be all it takes...I think Chris Englehart may have found a sneaky spot here and if Manny can put them to sleep on the lead he might be able to drag him to the line.

Good luck.

[moses]

Well, Bellacose was a really bad pick. I’d have never bet her at 7/2 or whatever she went off at…but what can you do. Risk Threshold went off around 15/1 and ran a pretty good race but just wasn’t good enough, finishing 4th.

$240.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Saturday.

Race 4. #2 Run Wild 15/1. This half-sister to Drake’s Passage has put in a few bullet workouts and note Linda hits with 13% of first time starters and she enlists Jose Ortiz to debut this filly (Linda and Jose boast a combined 30% win rate on 2YOs over the last 5 years). I would have liked to see a 5 furlong workout mixed in there but I like what I see at 15/1 and that price should hold if heavy favorite Tennessee Belle stays in this race.

Race 10. #2 Good Cheer 8/5. I was very high on La Cara last race but things are very different this time around. La Cara will likely be alone on the lead again (though I’m curious how Queen Azteca who seems to have mostly sprint pedigree will be ridden), but I think this race is a question of which horse can perform at 10 furlongs and I’ve got questions about La Cara and she’s not going to be 7/1 here. Good Cheer has always looked like she’s wanted to go further and she’ll get the chance here. It’s also possible she bounced a bit last out after a big performance in the Kentucky Oaks and she’s now gotten some rest and his ready to fire her best again. Lots of respect for Nitrogen but I just can’t back her here. La Cara will be too short of a price for me. Good Cheer will be singled in every one of my bets. I will also be finding a way to use Margie’s Intention underneath as she’s another horse who just looks like she wants to keep running (and she had no chance last out at Delaware Park where the track was a conveyor belt). She’s going to run a big race, I just don’t think she’s good enough to beat her stablemate.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, Bellacose was a really bad pick. I’d have never bet her at 7/2 or whatever she went off at…but what can you do. Risk Threshold went off around 15/1 and ran a pretty good race but just wasn’t good enough, finishing 4th.

$240.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Saturday.

Race 4. #2 Run Wild 15/1. This half-sister to Drake’s Passage has put in a few bullet workouts and note Linda hits with 13% of first time starters and she enlists Jose Ortiz to debut this filly (Linda and Jose boast a combined 30% win rate on 2YOs over the last 5 years). I would have liked to see a 5 furlong workout mixed in there but I like what I see at 15/1 and that price should hold if heavy favorite Tennessee Belle stays in this race.

Race 10. #2 Good Cheer 8/5. I was very high on La Cara last race but things are very different this time around. La Cara will likely be alone on the lead again (though I’m curious how Queen Azteca who seems to have mostly sprint pedigree will be ridden), but I think this race is a question of which horse can perform at 10 furlongs and I’ve got questions about La Cara and she’s not going to be 7/1 here. Good Cheer has always looked like she’s wanted to go further and she’ll get the chance here. It’s also possible she bounced a bit last out after a big performance in the Kentucky Oaks and she’s now gotten some rest and his ready to fire her best again. Lots of respect for Nitrogen but I just can’t back her here. La Cara will be too short of a price for me. Good Cheer will be singled in every one of my bets. I will also be finding a way to use Margie’s Intention underneath as she’s another horse who just looks like she wants to keep running (and she had no chance last out at Delaware Park where the track was a conveyor belt). She’s going to run a big race, I just don’t think she’s good enough to beat her stablemate.

Run Wild is scratched. Give me #4 Cicciobello in Race 8, listed at 9/2 morning line.

[theguarantee]

8/16
Best Bet: Race 8 #8 Crimson Light 6/1 - Think still has the most upside in here and I thought his last race was better than it looks. If improving off the break should be able to handle these, protected against a bunch that have had chances, I'd be delighted with 6/1 in here but I'm a little skeptical...

Best Value: Race 12 #6 Bustin Away 10/1 - I toyed with chalking out as I think Good Cheer and Assertiveness are both very likely winners with the latter possibly being slight value if the 2/1 were to hold...but I decided to take a shot at a better price in maybe the most wide open race of the day... Bustin Away's lone turf start was pretty good and that was last year, I also think the 5.5 is much more suited to him than the 6 they ran that day. I'm really uncertain of his form at this point...I know some people like the Finger Lakes shipper angle, I personally almost always toss them, however he's kind of bred to love this, showed enough last year to take a swing at what should be a nice price today. It's a guess without a ton of confidence to be honest.

[moses]

$248.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Good Cheer ran 2nd and paid $2.60 to place. I don’t even know where Cicciobello finished.

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Mystic Sea 6/1. All signs point to the ML favorite able to fire a good one off the layoff and any improvement from her 2YO races will make her extremely tough. But I want to take a shot against her. The next logical contender is Abundant Love and I thought she got a perfect trip last out and much prefer Dimensionality and Insperee out of that race, but I don’t really love any of the horses from that race. Dimensionality made a wide mid race move and still almost out finished Abundant Love. Insperee has looked rank in both her last two starts and I don’t think she liked being on the lead last time. Mystic Sea put in a solid first race on turf and note she was wide the entire race. She draws the 1 post and you better believe Junior is going to save some ground today. With some ground saved and hopefully a small move forward today in her 2nd turf start, she should be a major contender.

Race 5. #4 Typhoon Fury 8/1. This horse looks to have dirt pedigree and has figures on turf that fit here. I don’t really love the other horses so I’ll take a swing.

[theguarantee]

8/17:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Just For Luck 8/1 - Not enamored with this field, feel like the Dutrow barn runners are doing a little better than his win percentage indicates, seems to fit in here well.

Best Value: Race 10 #4 Senor Poncho 15/1 - Maybe reaching again similar to the last yesterday but I'm not in love with any of the favorites here. This hard knocker probably isn't good enough but if they don't show up, and there are reasons to believe that is possible on all of them, this horse fits pretty well to me and will be trying. Definitely a grinder but might've caught the right field today.