Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Looking at the forecast, I strongly suspect the turf races are coming off. With that in mind, not going to stick with Midnightloveaffair. Instead, here are my Thursday picks.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 9. #5 The Wine Steward, 6/1. The #2 Bank Frenzy is a pretty nice horse but doesn’t own figures so much better than this field that I want to bet him at 3/1. The likely favorite #9 Whatchatalkinabout has had two very strong races to start his 4YO year. But if you look back at Whatchatalkinabout compared to The Wine Steward, you’ll see that The Wine Steward beat him at Saratoga in the Funnycide in their 2YO season.

Since that race, the two horses have taken very different paths. The Wine Steward stepped up in class and performed well, with place finishes in the Breeders Futurity, Lexington, and Peter Pan before faltering in the Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Whatchatalkinabout stayed in the lower ranks and faced off against NY Bred and allowance horses until May of this year when he won the John Nerud Stakes.

But back to The Wine Steward. He had a nice stakes win to start off his 4YO year and was immediately thrown to the wolves again, trying to keep up with Saudi Crown and Banishing in the Oaklawn Park Mile and unsurprisingly getting run into the ground (though holding on for third.) While the last race for him at Lonestar Park might make you think he doesn’t like a wet track, he seemed to run just fine two back in the mud. I’d guess his very wide trip around both turns was more to blame than anything. Even the very talented Touchuponastar (you might disagree with this assessment if your name is Chad Brown) came up empty in the stretch after being wide throughout. It seems like you wanted to be near the rail that day. So I’m going to throw that race out. The Wine Steward ran back to his prior season numbers in his 4YO debut. He then had two impossible tasks. This is a much easier spot and I’d expect him to, at minimum, run back to his 4YO debut figure and I’d guess he improves on that. If he does, he’s going to win. And, oh yeah, Prat is aboard. I just hope his presence doesn’t deflate the odds too much.

[theguarantee]

Ugly card today. I like your analysis of the Morrissey. It's where I landed as well so I won't waste time adding anything to your thorough write-up.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 The Wine Steward 6/1

Best Value: Race 10 #1A Soundbite 8/1 - Wide open race still off the turf as I think you can make a case for basically anyone in here. With that said and expecting to get less than the ML obviously, I think Soundbite is kind of in the best form of any of these. She was slow to break her maiden but she's come back to run three pretty nice races since then including the blowout win two back same surface and distance.

[moses]

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

Nice call on Sound Bite. Back in the winners circle.

Today, it seemed like the guys who are good at giving aggressive forwardly placed rides fared well (Santana, Carmouche, Jose Ortiz). It might be a while before I get Lezcano again. He has not been riding well.

[moses]

Friday.

Race 7. #3 Tiz Dashing, 15/1. I’ll probably look like a fool for betting against Zulu Kingdom but my plan here is to go two wide in horizontals, using only #2 Luther and #3 Tiz Dashing. My hope is that Zulu Kingdom gets a little caught up in what looks like a fast pace and gets run down by one of them. And I think Tiz Dashing will be every bit of 15/1, expecting most money to land on Zulu Kingdom, Luther, and Clever Again. Tiz Dashing got a nice trip last out and wasn’t good enough but he was coming off a small layoff and I’d expect him to be a little more geared up for this one. Maybe I’ll look like a fool but I’ll take the risk at 15/1.

Race 8. #11 Kismeholdmethrlme, 20/1. I’ve spent a lot of time on this card and just couldn’t go with my original picks in this spot (Cloudy in Race 9, Leslie Star in Race 10.) This horse promises to be a monster price in a field with no clear favorite and certainly no horses that your really trust to run well. His figures from earlier this year on dirt make him somewhat competitive here and note he’s been on grass most of his recent races, but his pedigree looks more like dirt. Franco hops aboard and he should hopefully be able to work out a good trip. He finished 2nd in a MCL50,000 3 back that got washed off the turf.

[theguarantee]

8/1/25

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Vinsanity 15/1 - I thought about going back to Fluid Situation in here who did have a little trouble never getting totally free riding the rail, but I also just never thought he really finished up there. Chess Master and Shefflin can obviously win but I don't want either at a short price. There are some other options here and Vinsanity is probably a stretch but he'll be a huge price in here...he has some 5.5 turf sprints on firm that I think are competitive in here, I think the effort on softer turf in June can be ignored and sneakily he ran pretty well I thought in that dirt sprint at Monmouth last out. I think he's getting back to what he does best sprinting on the turf...might not be good enough but I'm not sure he's really that much less likely than Cloudy, Chiringo, Hilarious Affair etc who will all be (some much) lower prices.

Best Value: Race 8 #9 Come Full Circle 12/1 - Will have to improve returning to dirt and shortening up...the debut effort was better than it looks fig wise though and even that number puts him into the mix...not sure he won't be a bit of a wiseguy horse and come down from the 12/1 (and maybe it's a bad thing if he truly is double digits in here) - but I think in a race where you initially want to beat the favorites but struggle to find anything to latch onto, he's the right type to take a shot with.

[moses]

Look at us giving out a $150 exacta. Nice call there.

Tiz Dashing ran OK and was strangely moved up on a DQ I didn’t even know was happening until I checked back long after the race. Kismeholdmethrlme paid $19.40 to place.

$160.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

I haven’t even started looking at tomorrow. I know it’s a rough sequence with a lot of great horses. Kind of have a thought about the Fourstardave but I’ve really got to dig in first.

[theguarantee]

^yeah Mo really nice call on that 11. Hope you or someone was smart enough to hit that exacta and or tri…I unfortunately didn’t like your 11 at all

Tomorrow’s card is ridiculous. I started on it Tuesday and still don’t feel I’ve put enough into it. Good luck - it’s been a fun Saratoga meet so far. It’s challenging but the answers and prices are out there.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^yeah Mo really nice call on that 11. Hope you or someone was smart enough to hit that exacta and or tri…I unfortunately didn’t like your 11 at all

Tomorrow’s card is ridiculous. I started on it Tuesday and still don’t feel I’ve put enough into it. Good luck - it’s been a fun Saratoga meet so far. It’s challenging but the answers and prices are out there.

I didn’t have the exacta but I did have the Pick 3 ending with your 9, which paid pretty well. $200+. I was hoping for the 11 as the payout would have been double that. But I won’t complain.

My picks for Saturday.

Race 8. #1 Cugino, 10/1. There are a handful of horses you could really make a case for here. The ML favorite #3 Johannes — I want no parts off coming off a long layoff into this field. I’m probably going to try to get some value out of this race. I really love #8 Deterministic and #4 Think Big and will use them in horizontals. Cugino is stepping back into the graded stakes realm. I liked his 4YO debut against some pretty solid horses and that should serve as a good prep for this race. Is he good enough? I’m not sure but I think he’ll be 10/1 or more and he looks to get a nice inside trip behind the speed.

Race 11. #10 Post Time, 12/1. We all expect this pace to be fast with Chad adding Contrary Thinking in a race that already features Mama’s Gold. But Sierra Leone just doesn’t win enough for me to bet at 2/1. I’m also not sure that it will soften Fierceness up as he’s become much better at not getting sucked into speed duels. But, expecting the pace does heat up, I want to give Post Time a shot at a big number. I expect to use Fierceness and Post Time in multis but I’ll be putting a win bet on Post Time if he’s 12/1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value: Race 8 #9 Come Full Circle 12/1 - Will have to improve returning to dirt and shortening up...the debut effort was better than it looks fig wise though and even that number puts him into the mix...not sure he won't be a bit of a wiseguy horse and come down from the 12/1 (and maybe it's a bad thing if he truly is double digits in here) - but I think in a race where you initially want to beat the favorites but struggle to find anything to latch onto, he's the right type to take a shot with.

Super work here! Andy was all over him too.

[theguarantee]

^Thanks Steve.

8/2/25
Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Intellect 5/1 - I get thinking this one is an underlay but I actually have a very different take on the Kelso than most - I think the interference helped horses like Think Big and Neat as it allowed them to back off of the hottest pace of the race. I thought Prat moved far too early into the teeth of the race and was why he was ultimately outfinished. Prior to that he was too far back behind a pace that didn't develop quite enough. I think he gets the right trip today at a square price and while I do think Win For The Money is interesting for similar reasons racing wide that day, I just think maybe Intellect has more upside overall and today is the day to find out.

Best Value: Race 9 #1 Capitol Hill 15/1 - For better or worse this might be the horse I'm most excited to bet all meet so far...I realize the Euros have merits, particularly Hotazhell who if coming with an A effort will probably be too much, but I think there is a major question mark on how his running style, along with the other two, will translate here. I'm not against but I definitely don't want the short price...my main opinion on this race is that I really like Capitol Hill more than any of the NA contingent, and he figures to be a big price. I've never been a huge Final Gambit fan and I don't really get the excuses most are making for him last out. Tiztastic is kind of a plodder and while World Beater is nice I think he's pretty well exposed at this point. Test Score has the best credentials and is a contender but he's not one I'm scared from and thought he got a perfect trip in the last. New Century is a horse I was sky high on before his last and I could not have come away more disappointed in that effort. When I look at Capitol Hill I think the sky is the limit in terms of upside. He's lightly raced and I'll dismiss the debut effort as he's clearly a turf horse. The maiden breaker was tremendous and Uncatalyzed is far from a tomato can - he ran past him like he was tied to a post that day. Keeneland is a weird surface and while that effort was disappointing it was another solid field where he broke out into the hot dog stand and was just wide throughout. The dirt effort after is another easy line through race to me but I loved his Manilla effort. Yes, he saved ground throughout but he figures to do so again today. I thought his run at Zulu Kingdom was tremendous and showed his ability - I play around with numbers and think for whatever reason Beyer figs have continually underrated the quality of efforts of Zulu Kingdoms races (not saying they are wrong per say) - I think that effort puts him a lot closer to the best of the NA contingent here and if the Euros don't take to this course, I fully expect another step forward and think he's about as likely as many of the lower prices in here.

Good luck.

[moses]

Swing and a miss with both picks. I was able to cash some tickets today thanks to Deterministic. I didn’t even bet a trifecta that race but holy cow — it paid $330 for Deterministic-Intellect-Win For The Money, who in my opinion all made sense.

Good call on Intellect, by the way.

$168.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

For Sunday.

Race 3. #8 Hero’s Medal, 8/1. This is purely a pace play as I fully expect the pace to get hot and I want a late runner. Obviously the other Kantarmaci horse makes some sense too but this one should be a bigger price and he has races from last year that would win this and even his recent races haven’t been too bad so hoping the pace develops and Dylan can run them down in the stretch.

Race 7. #5 Doroteo, 10/1. There are a lot of big names in this race so this horse who broke its maiden at Indy and trained by Jose Camejo will get overlooked. Camejo doesn’t send horses to Saratoga too often so I’ve got to think he likes this one. The pace here will also be very fast with multiple horses who like to run up front. Doroteo ran into some pretty good horses in prior starts, including Hypnus and Clever Again. And you’ve got to wonder if he even wanted to go two turns. His debut was trial by fire as he got dropped right into a stakes race and was good enough to run 2nd there. The connections obviously think highly of him. He was great last out, rating well inside and behind the speed, then cut the corner at the top of the stretch and was gone. He’ll likely have to navigate more traffic this time but he should get the pace setup, if he’s good enough.

[theguarantee]

Vinsanity had nothing.
Come Full Circle was very sharp paying $17.40/11.80
I thought Capitol Hill was well positioned, very surprised he didn't come with his run, but that's horse racing I guess.
Intellect continues to not be able to time up the run correctly in my opinion, although credit to Deterministic who was really good...got up for second at a surprisingly big number and paid $8.70 to place.

Wagered: $168.00
Returned: $218.10

8/3/25
Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Jhirsch 8/1 - Liked the return effort to set up for today's run and hope/expect more of a stalking trip in here. Should be value for these connections in a race that I think he's the only one outside of the logical top four choices in here with much of a chance.

Best Value: Race 6 #5 Any Port 12/1 - Hoping for a big day from the 5 post, second off the layoff horses with Lezcano aboard apparently. Liked the return effort quite a bit. Never really got close to Vino Rouge but I think Lezcano was just taking her for a spin...probably ran better than I would've expected and I think a step forward is likely today. If Vino Rouge regresses, and I think that is somewhat likely, I think this field lacks anyone scary outside of Louise Procter, who I believe will be way overbet in here (not saying she can't win)...

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Swing and a miss with both picks. I was able to cash some tickets today thanks to Deterministic. I didn’t even bet a trifecta that race but holy cow — it paid $330 for Deterministic-Intellect-Win For The Money, who in my opinion all made sense.

Good call on Intellect, by the way.

$168.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

For Sunday.

Race 3. #8 Hero’s Medal, 8/1. This is purely a pace play as I fully expect the pace to get hot and I want a late runner. Obviously the other Kantarmaci horse makes some sense too but this one should be a bigger price and he has races from last year that would win this and even his recent races haven’t been too bad so hoping the pace develops and Dylan can run them down in the stretch.

Race 7. #5 Doroteo, 10/1. There are a lot of big names in this race so this horse who broke its maiden at Indy and trained by Jose Camejo will get overlooked. Camejo doesn’t send horses to Saratoga too often so I’ve got to think he likes this one. The pace here will also be very fast with multiple horses who like to run up front. Doroteo ran into some pretty good horses in prior starts, including Hypnus and Clever Again. And you’ve got to wonder if he even wanted to go two turns. His debut was trial by fire as he got dropped right into a stakes race and was good enough to run 2nd there. The connections obviously think highly of him. He was great last out, rating well inside and behind the speed, then cut the corner at the top of the stretch and was gone. He’ll likely have to navigate more traffic this time but he should get the pace setup, if he’s good enough.

Doroteo is scratched.

I’m going to look to Race 6 and pick #4 Can’t Fool Me, 15/1. ML favorite #6 Vino Rouge is the horse to beat and he should get a good pace scenario but he’s actually never won a turf race (though he did finish 1st and was DQed.) #3 Louise Procter was the only horse to make up significant ground in her U.S. debut but not sure she gets much pace to run at here. #1 Collaboration could move up under Irad but Linda Rice doesn’t have good turf numbers. The horse I think has the best chance to win is #8 Celtic Charm who was wide throughout last race coming off a long layoff. She now cuts back a bit and I’d expect will move forward here. But I want to take a swing on #4 Can’t Fool Me who gets the jockey changed to Rosario. Can’t Fool Me just never looked comfortable last out and might jive more with Rosario than Santana or Franco. She has struggled outside of the State bred races but I’m hoping the jockey change will be enough to turn the tables. I’ll be using exclusively 4&8 in multis and will probably bet a staggered trifecta centered around the 4 and 8.

[moses]

Two more whiffs.

$176.00 wagered
$270.40 returned

Kinda like the #1 Determined Kingdom in the Troy.

[moses]

I’ve looked at the Wednesday card and don’t really love it. I don’t want to spend much time on it.

Wednesday.

Race 1. #2 Castle Island, 4/1. Decent chance he wires, though wish Jose Ortiz was still aboard.

Race 8. #8 Notable Exchange, 12/1. This one has been looking for a pace to run into and should get it here.

Thursday.

Race 7. #2 Regalton, 8/1. It seems like George Weaver has been dominating the turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s probably because he has been, winning at a 40% clip in turf sprints this meet. The numbers are even better when you consider that 2 of his 9 starting non-winners ran 2nd and 4th to Governor Sam in the Quick Call. Similarly, he also has Silsbee and Laurice listed here. I think ML favorite Love Cervere is a very nice horse but question if she wants 5.5 furlongs as opposed to a little longer.

Race 9. #4 Maui Strong, 7/2. I’ve really liked this horse for a long time and now Irad hops aboard, making me question if there is any way we actually get 7/2 on him. I think he should be the heavy favorite so I’d love got get him at 7/2. Doesn’t look like a ton of pace signed on and he’s got a major class edge over these horses.